Scott Melissa, Sander Robert, Nemet Gregory, Patz Jonathan
Duke Samuel DuBois Cook Center on Social Equity, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States.
Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
Front Public Health. 2021 Apr 21;9:613517. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.613517. eCollection 2021.
In this study, we estimate the health benefits of more stringent alternative energy goals and the costs of reducing coal-fired power plant pollution in China projected in 2030. One of our two overarching alternative energy goals was to estimate the health benefits of complete elimination of coal energy, supplemented by natural gas and renewables. The second was a policy scenario similar to the U.S. 2013 Climate Action Plan (CAP), which played a pivotal role leading up to the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. We used the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model created by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis for our model simulations. We found that 17,137-24,220 premature deaths can be avoided if coal energy is completely replaced by alternative energy, and 8,693-9,281 premature deaths can be avoided if coal energy is replaced by alternatives in a CAP-like scenario. A CAP-like scenario using emission-controls in coal plants costs $11-18 per person. Reducing coal energy in China under a CAP-like scenario would free up $9.4 billion in the annual energy budget to spend on alternatives, whereas eliminating the cost of coal energy frees up $32 billion. This study's estimates show that more stringent alternative energy targets in China are worth the investment in terms of health.
在本研究中，我们估算了到2030年中国更严格的替代能源目标所带来的健康效益以及减少燃煤电厂污染的成本。我们两个总体替代能源目标之一是估算完全消除煤炭能源（辅以天然气和可再生能源）所带来的健康效益。第二个是类似于美国2013年气候行动计划（CAP）的政策情景，该计划在2015年《巴黎气候协定》达成之前发挥了关键作用。我们在模型模拟中使用了由国际应用系统分析研究所创建的温室气体与空气污染相互作用及协同效应（GAINS）模型。我们发现，如果煤炭能源完全被替代能源取代，可避免17,137 - 24,220例过早死亡；如果在类似CAP的情景下用替代能源取代煤炭能源，可避免8,693 - 9,281例过早死亡。在类似CAP的情景下，对燃煤电厂使用排放控制措施的成本为每人11 - 18美元。在类似CAP的情景下，中国减少煤炭能源使用将在年度能源预算中腾出94亿美元用于替代能源，而消除煤炭能源成本则可腾出320亿美元。这项研究的估算表明，就健康而言，中国更严格的替代能源目标值得投资。
