Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Energy Science Building , Tsinghua University , Beijing 100084 , China.
Environ Sci Technol. 2019 May 21;53(10):5576-5584. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.8b06948. Epub 2019 May 9.
This research links the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM system model of China (China TIMES) and the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model (GAINS) to assess the co-benefits of air quality improvement under the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and the well below 2 °C (WBD2) target. Results show that the industry sector and power sector are the key sources necessary to reduce air pollutant emissions, mainly due to the phasing out of fossil fuels. The electrification in the building sector will be another main source by which to decrease PM emissions. The adoption of various low-carbon constraints and further air pollutant control strategies will significantly alleviate the current air pollution problems in China by reducing the concentration and scope of the air pollutants and reducing the corresponding number of premature deaths. A stricter air pollutant control strategy will lead to increases in air pollutant control costs; however, the low-carbon targets will help reduce these costs in the long run. Compared to the current national policy, within the same air pollutant control strategy, the reduction of air pollutant control cost can cover the incremental CO mitigation cost under the NDC target, while this cannot be realized under the WBD2 target.
本研究将中国综合 MARKAL-EFOM 系统模型（China TIMES）和温室气体与空气污染相互作用和协同作用模型（GAINS）联系起来，评估国家自主贡献（NDC）和远低于 2°C（WBD2）目标下空气质量改善的共同效益。结果表明，工业部门和电力部门是减少空气污染物排放的必要关键来源，主要是因为要逐步淘汰化石燃料。建筑部门的电气化将是减少 PM 排放的另一个主要来源。采用各种低碳约束和进一步的空气污染控制策略，通过降低空气污染物的浓度和范围，减少相应的过早死亡人数，将显著缓解中国目前的空气污染问题。更严格的空气污染控制策略将导致空气污染控制成本的增加；然而，从长远来看，低碳目标将有助于降低这些成本。与当前的国家政策相比，在相同的空气污染控制策略下，减少空气污染控制成本可以覆盖 NDC 目标下 CO 减排增量的成本，而在 WBD2 目标下则无法实现。
