Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang, 110166, China.
Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Disasters, Liaoning Province, Shenyang, 110166, China.
Sci Rep. 2021 May 11;11(1):9968. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-89227-y.
Owing to climate change, agrometeorological disasters are becoming increasingly complex. Here, we analysed the characteristics of combined agrometeorological disaster (CAD) caused by low temperature in annual rice crops in Liaoning Province, China, from 1961 to 2017. We assessed the repeat occurrence of natural disasters on rice production. The results showed that (1) there were six possible CAD scenarios in a rice growing season. These included two scenarios with one disaster in two periods (OD-1, OD-2), three scenarios with two different disasters (TD-1, TD-2, TD-3) and one with multiple disasters (MD-1). Since 1961, the overall occurrence of the six CAD scenarios showed a downward trend. Among the six scenarios, TD-1 had the greatest distribution and occurred most frequently; (2) three possible single agrometeorological disaster (SAD) scenarios may occur during a rice growing season, delayed cold damage (SAD-d), frost damage at only one stage (SAD-f), sterile-type cold damage at one stage (SAD-s). Since 1961, the SAD-d frequency decreased, whereas, since the mid-1980s, the SAD-f frequency increased; (3) SAD and CAD frequencies showed downward trends, with CAD declining more than SAD. The CAD geographical range and frequency were smaller than those of SAD. Rice damage in SAD-f and OD-1 scenarios showed no significant trend, but appeared to have slightly increased. The main agrometeorological disasters affecting rice production in Liaoning Province were delayed cold damage, frost damage or both; (4) a comparison of the rice yield reduction rates of years in which CAD or SAD occurred in more than 50% of stations in Liaoning Province revealed that the yield reduction rates associated with the former were greater than those associated with the latter. CAD had more types, and the occurrences and impacts were more complicated, than for SAD. Compared with SAD, the effects of CAD may be magnified in rice crops, leading to reduced yields.
由于气候变化，农业气象灾害变得越来越复杂。在这里，我们分析了 1961 年至 2017 年期间中国辽宁省年度水稻作物低温引起的综合农业气象灾害（CAD）的特征。我们评估了自然灾害对水稻生产的重复发生。结果表明：（1）在一个水稻生长季节内可能有六种可能的 CAD 情景。这些情景包括两个两个时期发生一次灾害的两个情景（OD-1，OD-2），三个两个不同灾害的情景（TD-1，TD-2，TD-3）和一个多种灾害的情景（MD-1）。自 1961 年以来，这六种 CAD 情景的总体发生呈下降趋势。在这六种情况下，TD-1 分布最广，发生频率最高；（2）在一个水稻生长季节内可能会出现三种可能的单一农业气象灾害（SAD）情景，分别是延迟冷害（SAD-d）、单期霜害（SAD-f）和单期不育型冷害（SAD-s）。自 1961 年以来，SAD-d 的频率下降，而自 20 世纪 80 年代中期以来，SAD-f 的频率增加；（3）SAD 和 CAD 的频率均呈下降趋势，其中 CAD 的下降幅度大于 SAD。CAD 的地理范围和频率均小于 SAD。SAD-f 和 OD-1 情景下的水稻损害没有明显的趋势，但似乎略有增加。影响辽宁省水稻生产的主要农业气象灾害是延迟冷害、霜害或两者兼有；（4）对辽宁省超过 50%的站点发生 CAD 或 SAD 的年份的水稻减产率进行比较发现，前者的减产率大于后者。CAD 的类型更多，发生和影响也更复杂，而 SAD 则更简单。与 SAD 相比，CAD 对水稻作物的影响可能会放大，导致产量下降。
