Tibpromma Saowaluck, Dong Yang, Ranjitkar Sailesh, Schaefer Douglas A, Karunarathna Samantha C, Hyde Kevin D, Jayawardena Ruvishika S, Manawasinghe Ishara S, Bebber Daniel P, Promputtha Itthayakorn, Xu Jianchu, Mortimer Peter E, Sheng Jun
CAS Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Science, Kunming, China.
World Agroforestry Centre, East and Central Asia, Kunming, China.
Front Cell Infect Microbiol. 2021 Apr 29;11:610567. doi: 10.3389/fcimb.2021.610567. eCollection 2021.
Climate change will affect numerous crops in the future; however, perennial crops, such as tea, are particularly vulnerable. Climate change will also strongly influence fungal pathogens. Here, we predict how future climatic conditions will impact tea and its associated pathogens. We collected data on the three most important fungal pathogens of tea (, , and ) and then modeled distributions of tea and these fungal pathogens using current and projected climates. The models show that baseline tea-growing areas will become unsuitable for var. (15 to 32% loss) and var. (32 to 34% loss) by 2050. Although new areas will become more suitable for tea cultivation, existing and potentially new fungal pathogens will present challenges in these areas, and they are already under other land-use regimes. In addition, future climatic scenarios suitable range of fungal species and tea suitable cultivation (respectively in CSS and CSA) growing areas are (44.30%; 31.05%), (13.10%; 10.70%), and (10.20%; 11.90%). Protecting global tea cultivation requires innovative approaches that consider fungal genomics as part and parcel of plant pathology.
气候变化未来将影响众多作物；然而，多年生作物，如茶树，尤其脆弱。气候变化也将强烈影响真菌病原体。在此，我们预测未来气候条件将如何影响茶树及其相关病原体。我们收集了关于茶树三种最重要真菌病原体（[此处病原体名称缺失]、[此处病原体名称缺失]和[此处病原体名称缺失]）的数据，然后利用当前和预测气候对茶树及这些真菌病原体的分布进行建模。模型显示，到2050年，基线茶树种植区将变得不适宜[此处茶树品种名称缺失]变种（损失15%至32%）和[此处茶树品种名称缺失]变种（损失32%至34%）生长。尽管新的区域将变得更适宜茶树种植，但现有的以及潜在的新真菌病原体将在这些区域带来挑战，而且这些区域已经处于其他土地利用模式之下。此外，未来气候情景下，真菌物种适宜范围和茶树适宜种植（分别在CSS和CSA中）的区域情况为[此处真菌物种及相应数据缺失]（44.30%；31.05%）、[此处真菌物种及相应数据缺失]（13.10%；10.70%）和[此处真菌物种及相应数据缺失]（10.20%；11.90%）。保护全球茶树种植需要创新方法，将真菌基因组学视为植物病理学的重要组成部分。
