Fernandes Leonardo H S, Araujo Fernando H A, Silva Maria A R, Acioli-Santos Bartolomeu
Department of Economics and Informatics, Federal Rural University of Pernambuco, Serra Talhada, PE 56909-535, Brazil.
Department of Statistics and Informatics, Federal Rural University of Pernambuco, Recife, PE 52171-900, Brazil.
Results Phys. 2021 Jul;26:104306. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104306. Epub 2021 May 13.
This paper examines the predictability of COVID-19 worldwide lethality considering 43 countries. Based on the values inherent to Permutation entropy ( ) and Fisher information measure ( ), we apply the Shannon-Fisher causality plane (SFCP), which allows us to quantify the disorder an evaluate randomness present in the time series of daily death cases related to COVID-19 in each country. We also use Hs and Fs to rank the COVID-19 lethality in these countries based on the complexity hierarchy. Our results suggest that the most proactive countries implemented measures such as facemasks, social distancing, quarantine, massive population testing, and hygienic (sanitary) orientations to limit the impacts of COVID-19, which implied lower entropy (higher predictability) to the COVID-19 lethality. In contrast, the most reactive countries implementing these measures depicted higher entropy (lower predictability) to the COVID-19 lethality. Given this, our findings shed light that these preventive measures are efficient to combat the COVID-19 lethality.
本文考察了43个国家新冠病毒肺炎全球致死率的可预测性。基于排列熵（ ）和费舍尔信息量（ ）的固有值，我们应用了香农-费舍尔因果平面（SFCP），这使我们能够量化与各国新冠病毒肺炎每日死亡病例时间序列中存在的无序性和评估随机性。我们还使用Hs和Fs根据复杂性层次对这些国家的新冠病毒肺炎致死率进行排名。我们的结果表明，最积极主动的国家实施了诸如戴口罩、保持社交距离、隔离、大规模人群检测以及卫生（环境卫生）指导等措施来限制新冠病毒肺炎的影响，这意味着新冠病毒肺炎致死率的熵较低（可预测性较高）。相比之下，实施这些措施最被动的国家的新冠病毒肺炎致死率呈现出较高的熵（可预测性较低）。鉴于此，我们的研究结果表明这些预防措施对于抗击新冠病毒肺炎致死率是有效的。
