使用深度学习模型预测新冠病毒病病例:它可靠且具有实际意义吗?

Forecasting of COVID-19 cases using deep learning models: Is it reliable and practically significant?

作者信息

Devaraj Jayanthi, Madurai Elavarasan Rajvikram, Pugazhendhi Rishi, Shafiullah G M, Ganesan Sumathi, Jeysree Ajay Kaarthic, Khan Irfan Ahmad, Hossain Eklas

机构信息

Department of Information Technology, Sri Venkateswara College of Engineering, Chennai 602117, India.

Clean and Resilient Energy Systems (CARES) Laboratory, Texas A&M University, Galveston, TX 77553, USA.

出版信息

Results Phys. 2021 Feb;21:103817. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.103817. Epub 2021 Jan 14.

Abstract

The ongoing outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic prevails as an ultimatum to the global economic growth and henceforth, all of society since neither a curing drug nor a preventing vaccine is discovered. The spread of COVID-19 is increasing day by day, imposing human lives and economy at risk. Due to the increased enormity of the number of COVID-19 cases, the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is imperative in the current scenario. AI would be a powerful tool to fight against this pandemic outbreak by predicting the number of cases in advance. Deep learning-based time series techniques are considered to predict world-wide COVID-19 cases in advance for short-term and medium-term dependencies with adaptive learning. Initially, the data pre-processing and feature extraction is made with the real world COVID-19 dataset. Subsequently, the prediction of cumulative confirmed, death and recovered global cases are modelled with Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Stacked Long Short-Term Memory (SLSTM) and Prophet approaches. For long-term forecasting of COVID-19 cases, multivariate LSTM models is employed. The performance metrics are computed for all the models and the prediction results are subjected to comparative analysis to identify the most reliable model. From the results, it is evident that the Stacked LSTM algorithm yields higher accuracy with an error of less than 2% as compared to the other considered algorithms for the studied performance metrics. Country-specific analysis and city-specific analysis of COVID-19 cases for India and Chennai, respectively, are predicted and analyzed in detail. Also, statistical hypothesis analysis and correlation analysis are done on the COVID-19 datasets by including the features like temperature, rainfall, population, total infected cases, area and population density during the months of May, June, July and August to find out the best suitable model. Further, practical significance of predicting COVID-19 cases is elucidated in terms of assessing pandemic characteristics, scenario planning, optimization of models and supporting Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

摘要

新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情的持续爆发是全球经济增长乃至整个社会面临的严峻挑战,因为目前尚未发现治愈药物或预防疫苗。COVID-19的传播日益加剧,使人类生命和经济面临风险。鉴于COVID-19病例数量的急剧增加,人工智能(AI)在当前情况下的作用至关重要。人工智能将成为通过提前预测病例数量来抗击这一疫情爆发的有力工具。基于深度学习的时间序列技术被认为可以通过自适应学习提前预测全球范围内短期和中期依赖的COVID-19病例。首先,使用真实世界的COVID-19数据集进行数据预处理和特征提取。随后,使用自回归积分移动平均(ARIMA)、长短期记忆(LSTM)、堆叠长短期记忆(SLSTM)和先知方法对累计确诊、死亡和康复的全球病例进行预测建模。对于COVID-19病例的长期预测,采用多变量LSTM模型。计算所有模型的性能指标,并对预测结果进行比较分析,以确定最可靠的模型。结果表明,与其他考虑的算法相比,堆叠LSTM算法在研究的性能指标上具有更高的准确性,误差小于2%。分别对印度和钦奈的COVID-19病例进行了详细的国家层面和城市层面分析和预测。此外,通过纳入5月、6月、7月和8月的温度(℃)、降雨量(mm)、人口、总感染病例、面积和人口密度等特征,对COVID-19数据集进行了统计假设分析和相关性分析,以找出最合适的模型。此外,从评估疫情特征、情景规划、模型优化和支持可持续发展目标(SDG)等方面阐明了预测COVID-19病例的实际意义。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d849/7806459/475edf39add6/gr1_lrg.jpg

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