Zhong Jingyu, Si Liping, Zhang Guangcheng, Huo Jiayu, Xing Yue, Hu Yangfan, Zhang Huan, Yao Weiwu
Department of Imaging, Tongren Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, No. 1111 Xianxia Road, Changning District, Shanghai, 200336, China.
Department of Orthopedics, Shanghai Jiao Tong University Affiliated Sixth People's Hospital, No. 600 Yishan Road, Xuhui District, Shanghai, 200233, China.
Syst Rev. 2021 May 19;10(1):149. doi: 10.1186/s13643-021-01683-9.
Osteoarthritis is the most common degenerative joint disease. It is associated with significant socioeconomic burden and poor quality of life, mainly due to knee osteoarthritis (KOA), and related total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Since early detection method and disease-modifying drug is lacking, the key of KOA treatment is shifting to disease prevention and progression slowing. The prognostic prediction models are called for to guide clinical decision-making. The aim of our review is to identify and characterize reported multivariable prognostic models for KOA about three clinical concerns: (1) the risk of developing KOA in the general population, (2) the risk of receiving TKA in KOA patients, and (3) the outcome of TKA in KOA patients who plan to receive TKA.
The electronic datasets (PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Scopus, SportDiscus, and CINAHL) and gray literature sources (OpenGrey, British Library Inside, ProQuest Dissertations & Theses Global, and BIOSIS preview) will be searched from their inception onwards. Title and abstract screening and full-text review will be accomplished by two independent reviewers. The multivariable prognostic models that concern on (1) the risk of developing KOA in the general population, (2) the risk of receiving TKA in KOA patients, and (3) the outcome of TKA in KOA patients who plan to receive TKA will be included. Data extraction instrument and critical appraisal instrument will be developed before formal assessment and will be modified during a training phase in advance. Study reporting transparency, methodological quality, and risk of bias will be assessed according to the TRIPOD statement, CHARMS checklist, and PROBAST tool, respectively. Prognostic prediction models will be summarized qualitatively. Quantitative metrics on the predictive performance of these models will be synthesized with meta-analyses if appropriate.
Our systematic review will collate evidence from prognostic prediction models that can be used through the whole process of KOA. The review may identify models which are capable of allowing personalized preventative and therapeutic interventions to be precisely targeted at those individuals who are at the highest risk. To accomplish the prediction models to cross the translational gaps between an exploratory research method and a valued addition to precision medicine workflows, research recommendations relating to model development, validation, or impact assessment will be made.
PROSPERO CRD42020203543.
骨关节炎是最常见的退行性关节疾病。它与巨大的社会经济负担和生活质量差相关，主要归因于膝关节骨关节炎（KOA）及相关的全膝关节置换术（TKA）。由于缺乏早期检测方法和改善病情的药物，KOA治疗的关键正转向疾病预防和延缓疾病进展。需要预后预测模型来指导临床决策。我们综述的目的是识别并描述已报道的关于KOA的多变量预后模型，涉及三个临床关注点：（1）普通人群中发生KOA的风险；（2）KOA患者接受TKA的风险；（3）计划接受TKA的KOA患者TKA的结局。
将从电子数据集（PubMed、Embase、Cochrane图书馆、Web of Science、Scopus、SportDiscus和CINAHL）以及灰色文献来源（OpenGrey、大英图书馆内部资源、ProQuest全球学位论文和BIOSIS预览）自创建以来进行检索。由两名独立评审员完成标题和摘要筛选以及全文评审。纳入关注以下方面的多变量预后模型：（1）普通人群中发生KOA的风险；（2）KOA患者接受TKA的风险；（3）计划接受TKA的KOA患者TKA的结局。在正式评估前将开发数据提取工具和关键评估工具，并在预先的培训阶段进行修改。将分别根据TRIPOD声明、CHARMS清单和PROBAST工具评估研究报告的透明度、方法学质量和偏倚风险。将对预后预测模型进行定性总结。如果合适，将通过荟萃分析综合这些模型预测性能的定量指标。
我们的系统综述将整理来自可在KOA全过程使用的预后预测模型的证据。该综述可能会识别出能够使个性化预防和治疗干预精准针对最高风险个体的模型。为使预测模型跨越探索性研究方法与精准医疗工作流程中有价值补充之间的转化差距，将提出与模型开发、验证或影响评估相关的研究建议。
PROSPERO CRD42020203543
