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将流行病学模型与社会动态相结合。

Coupling Epidemiological Models with Social Dynamics.

机构信息

IMAS, Instituto de Investigaciones Matemáticas Luis A. Santaló, CONICET and Universidad de Buenos Aires, Av Cantilo s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, 1428, Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Departamento de Matemática, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Av Cantilo s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, 1428, Buenos Aires, Argentina.

出版信息

Bull Math Biol. 2021 May 18;83(7):74. doi: 10.1007/s11538-021-00910-7.

Abstract

In this work we study a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model coupled with a continuous opinion dynamics model. We assume that each individual can take measures to reduce the probability of contagion, and the level of effort each agent applies can change due to social interactions. We propose simple rules to model the propagation of behaviors that modify the level of effort, and analyze their impact on the dynamics of the disease. We derive a two dimensional set of ordinary differential equations describing the dynamic of the proportion of the number of infected individuals and the mean value of the effort parameter, and analyze the equilibria of the system. The stability of the endemic phase and disease free equilibria depends only on the mean value of the levels of efforts, and not on the initial distribution of levels of effort.

摘要

在这项工作中,我们研究了一个易感者-感染者-易感者模型,该模型与连续意见动力学模型相结合。我们假设每个人都可以采取措施降低感染的概率,并且由于社会互动,每个代理应用的努力水平可以改变。我们提出了一些简单的规则来对改变努力水平的行为进行建模,并分析它们对疾病动态的影响。我们推导出一个二维常微分方程组来描述感染人数的比例和努力参数的平均值的动态,并分析系统的平衡点。地方病平衡和无病平衡点的稳定性仅取决于努力水平的平均值,而不取决于努力水平的初始分布。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9389/8130810/4583b167f59d/11538_2021_910_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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