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用于控制新冠病毒病的同步非药物干预措施

Synchronized nonpharmaceutical interventions for the control of COVID-19.

作者信息

Zhang Bing, Liang Shiwen, Wang Gang, Zhang Chi, Chen Cai, Zou Min, Shen Wei, Long Haoyu, He Daihai, Shu Yuelong, Du Xiangjun

机构信息

School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.

Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.

出版信息

Nonlinear Dyn. 2021;106(2):1477-1489. doi: 10.1007/s11071-021-06505-0. Epub 2021 May 21.

DOI:10.1007/s11071-021-06505-0
PMID:34035561
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8138095/
Abstract

UNLABELLED

The world is experiencing an ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In attempts to control the pandemic, a range of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) has been implemented worldwide. However, the effect of synchronized NPIs for the control of COVID-19 at temporal and spatial scales has not been well studied. Therefore, a meta-population model that incorporates essential nonlinear processes was constructed to uncover the transmission characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and then assess the effectiveness of synchronized NPIs on COVID-19 dynamics in China. Regional synchronization of NPIs was observed in China, and it was found that a combination of synchronized NPIs (the travel restrictions, the social distancing and the infection isolation) prevented 93.7% of SARS-CoV-2 infections. The use of synchronized NPIs at the time of the Wuhan lockdown may have prevented as much as 38% of SARS-CoV-2 infections, compared with the unsynchronized scenario. The interconnectivity of the epicenter, the implementation time of synchronized NPIs, and the number of regions considered all affected the performance of synchronized NPIs. The results highlight the importance of using synchronized NPIs in high-risk regions for the control of COVID-19 and shed light on effective strategies for future pandemic responses.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-021-06505-0.

摘要

未标注

世界正在经历由严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）引起的2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行。为控制这一疫情，全球范围内实施了一系列非药物干预措施（NPIs）。然而，同步NPIs在时空尺度上对COVID-19的控制效果尚未得到充分研究。因此，构建了一个包含基本非线性过程的元种群模型，以揭示SARS-CoV-2的传播特征，进而评估同步NPIs对中国COVID-19动态的有效性。在中国观察到NPIs的区域同步性，发现同步NPIs（旅行限制、社交距离和感染隔离）的组合预防了93.7%的SARS-CoV-2感染。与未同步的情况相比，在武汉封城时使用同步NPIs可能预防了多达38%的SARS-CoV-2感染。疫情中心的相互关联性、同步NPIs的实施时间以及所考虑的区域数量均影响了同步NPIs的效果。这些结果凸显了在高风险地区使用同步NPIs对控制COVID-19的重要性，并为未来应对疫情的有效策略提供了启示。

补充信息

在线版本包含可在10.1007/s11071-021-06505-0获取的补充材料。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/781e/8138095/9363f7467089/11071_2021_6505_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/781e/8138095/42f45282c054/11071_2021_6505_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/781e/8138095/60da59614a00/11071_2021_6505_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/781e/8138095/daa797050a3a/11071_2021_6505_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/781e/8138095/0215c8edf0fd/11071_2021_6505_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/781e/8138095/9363f7467089/11071_2021_6505_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/781e/8138095/42f45282c054/11071_2021_6505_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/781e/8138095/60da59614a00/11071_2021_6505_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/781e/8138095/daa797050a3a/11071_2021_6505_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/781e/8138095/0215c8edf0fd/11071_2021_6505_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/781e/8138095/9363f7467089/11071_2021_6505_Fig5_HTML.jpg

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