Jia Qiaojuan, Li Jiali, Lin Hualiang, Tian Fei, Zhu Guanghu
School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, China.
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510080 China.
Nonlinear Dyn. 2022;107(1):1313-1327. doi: 10.1007/s11071-021-07001-1. Epub 2021 Oct 29.
Current explosive outbreak of COVID-19 around the world is a complex spatiotemporal process with hidden interactions between viruses and humans. This study aims at clarifying the transmission patterns and the driving mechanism that contributed to the COVID-19 prevalence across the provinces of China. Thus, a new dynamical transmission model is established by an ordinary differential system. The model takes into account the hidden circulation of COVID-19 virus among/within humans, which incorporates the spatial diffusion of infection by parameterizing human mobility. Theoretical analysis indicates that the basic reproduction number is a unique epidemic threshold, which can unite infectivity in each region by human mobility and can totally determine whether COVID-19 proceeds among multiple regions. By validating the model with real epidemic data in China, it is found that (1) if without any intervention, COVID-19 would overrun China within three months, resulting in more than 1.1 billion clinical infections and 0.2 billion subclinical infections; (2) high frequency of human mobility can trigger COVID-19 diffusion across each province in China, no matter where the initial infection locates; (3) travel restrictions and other non-pharmaceutical interventions must be implemented simultaneously for disease control; and (4) infection sites in central and east (rather than west and northeast) of China would easily stimulate quick diffusion of COVID-19 in the whole country.
The online version supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-021-07001-1.
当前全球范围内新冠疫情的爆发是一个复杂的时空过程，病毒与人类之间存在着隐藏的相互作用。本研究旨在阐明导致新冠病毒在中国各省流行的传播模式和驱动机制。因此，通过常微分系统建立了一个新的动态传播模型。该模型考虑了新冠病毒在人类之间/内部的隐藏传播，通过对人类流动性进行参数化纳入了感染的空间扩散。理论分析表明，基本再生数是一个独特的流行阈值，它可以通过人类流动性将每个地区的传染性统一起来，并完全决定新冠病毒是否会在多个地区传播。通过用中国的实际疫情数据验证该模型，发现：（1）如果不进行任何干预，新冠病毒将在三个月内席卷中国，导致超过11亿例临床感染和2亿例亚临床感染；（2）人类的高流动性会引发新冠病毒在中国各省的传播，无论初始感染发生在哪里；（3）必须同时实施旅行限制和其他非药物干预措施来控制疾病；（4）中国中部和东部（而非西部和东北部）的感染地点容易促使新冠病毒在全国迅速传播。
在线版本的补充材料可在10.1007/s11071-021-07001-1获取。
