Cerqua Augusto, Di Stefano Roberta
Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome, P.le Aldo Moro, 5, 00185 Rome, Italy.
Department of Statistical Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Viale Regina Elena 295, 00161 Rome, Italy.
Stat Methods Appt. 2022;31(1):181-195. doi: 10.1007/s10260-021-00568-4. Epub 2021 May 20.
The first cluster of coronavirus cases in Europe was officially detected on 21st February 2020 in Northern Italy, even if recent evidence showed sporadic first cases in Europe since the end of 2019. In this study, we have tested the presence of coronavirus in Italy and, even more importantly, we have assessed whether the virus had already spread sooner than 21st February. We use a counterfactual approach and certified daily data on the number of deaths (deaths from any cause, not only related to coronavirus) at the municipality level. Our estimates confirm that coronavirus began spreading in Northern Italy in mid-January.
2020年2月21日，欧洲首例新冠病毒病例在意大利北部被正式检测到，尽管近期证据显示自2019年底以来欧洲已出现散发病例。在本研究中，我们检测了意大利境内新冠病毒的存在情况，更重要的是，我们评估了该病毒是否在2月21日之前就已开始传播。我们采用了一种反事实方法，并使用了市级层面经认证的每日死亡人数数据（包括所有原因导致的死亡，而非仅与新冠病毒相关的死亡）。我们的估计结果证实，新冠病毒于1月中旬开始在意大利北部传播。
