College of Pharmacy, Yonsei Institute of Pharmaceutical Research, Yonsei University, 162-1 Songdo-dong, Yeonsu-gu, Incheon, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, National Health Insurance Service Ilsan Hospital, Ilsan, Republic of Korea.
Sci Rep. 2021 May 27;11(1):11243. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-90511-0.
Influenza is an important public health concern. We propose a new real-time influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance system that utilizes a nationwide prospective drug utilization monitoring in Korea. We defined ILI-related claims as outpatient claims that contain both antipyretic and antitussive agents and calculated the weekly rate of ILI-related claims, which was compared to weekly ILI rates from clinical sentinel surveillance data during 2014-2018. We performed a cross-correlation analysis using Pearson's correlation, time-series analysis to explore actual correlations after removing any dubious correlations due to underlying non-stationarity in both data sets. We used the moving epidemic method (MEM) to estimate an absolute threshold to designate potential influenza epidemics for the weeks with incidence rates above the threshold. We observed a strong correlation between the two surveillance systems each season. The absolute thresholds for the 4-years were 84.64 and 86.19 cases per 1000claims for claims data and 12.27 and 16.82 per 1000 patients for sentinel data. The epidemic patterns were more similar in the 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 seasons than the 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 seasons. ILI claims data can be loaded to a drug utilization review system in Korea to make an influenza surveillance system.
流感是一个重要的公共卫生关注点。我们提出了一个新的实时流感样疾病（ILI）监测系统，该系统利用韩国全国性的前瞻性药物利用监测。我们将ILI 相关的索赔定义为包含解热和镇咳剂的门诊索赔，并计算了ILI 相关索赔的每周发生率，与 2014-2018 年期间临床哨点监测数据中的每周 ILI 发生率进行比较。我们使用皮尔逊相关系数进行了交叉相关分析，时间序列分析以探索由于两个数据集之间的潜在非平稳性而去除任何可疑相关性后的实际相关性。我们使用移动疫情方法（MEM）来估计一个绝对阈值，以指定潜在的流感疫情周的发病率高于阈值。我们观察到两个监测系统在每个季节都有很强的相关性。四年的绝对阈值分别为 84.64 和 86.19 例/1000 例，用于索赔数据，12.27 和 16.82 例/1000 例，用于哨点数据。在 2016-2017 年和 2017-2018 年两个季节，流行模式比 2014-2015 年和 2015-2016 年两个季节更为相似。ILI 索赔数据可以加载到韩国的药物利用审查系统中，以建立一个流感监测系统。
