Lü Xing, Hui Hong-Wen, Liu Fei-Fei, Bai Ya-Li
Department of Mathematics, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, 100044 China.
School of Computer and Communication Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, 100083 China.
Nonlinear Dyn. 2021;106(2):1491-1507. doi: 10.1007/s11071-021-06524-x. Epub 2021 May 25.
In this paper, a novel two-stage epidemic model with a dynamic control strategy is proposed to describe the spread of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Combined with local epidemic control policies, an epidemic model with a traceability process is established. We aim to investigate the appropriate control strategies to minimize the control cost and ensure the normal operation of society under the premise of containing the epidemic. This work mainly includes: (i) propose the concept about the first and the second waves of COVID-19, as well as study the case data and regularity of four cities; (ii) derive the existence and stability of the equilibrium, the parameter sensitivity of the model, and the existence of the optimal control strategy; (iii) carry out the numerical simulation associated with the theoretical results and construct a dynamic control strategy and verify its feasibility.
本文提出了一种具有动态控制策略的新型两阶段流行病模型，以描述2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）在中国的传播情况。结合地方疫情防控政策，建立了一个具有溯源过程的流行病模型。我们旨在研究合适的控制策略，以便在控制疫情的前提下，将控制成本降至最低，并确保社会的正常运转。这项工作主要包括：（i）提出关于COVID-19第一波和第二波的概念，并研究四个城市的病例数据和规律；（ii）推导平衡点的存在性和稳定性、模型的参数敏感性以及最优控制策略的存在性；（iii）进行与理论结果相关的数值模拟，构建动态控制策略并验证其可行性。
