Algarni Abeer D, Ben Hamed Aws, Hamdi Monia, Elmannai Hela, Meshoul Souham
Department of Information Technology, College of Computer and Information Sciences, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Sfax University, Sfax, Tunisia.
PeerJ Comput Sci. 2022 May 13;8:e959. doi: 10.7717/peerj-cs.959. eCollection 2022.
The discovery of a new form of corona-viruses in December 2019, SARS-CoV-2, commonly named COVID-19, has reshaped the world. With health and economic issues at stake, scientists have been focusing on understanding the dynamics of the disease, in order to provide the governments with the best policies and strategies allowing them to reduce the span of the virus. The world has been waiting for the vaccine for more than one year. The World Health Organization (WHO) is advertising the vaccine as a safe and effective measure to fight off the virus. Saudi Arabia was the fourth country in the world to start to vaccinate its population. Even with the new simplified COVID-19 rules, the third dose is still mandatory. COVID-19 vaccines have raised many questions regarding in its efficiency and its role to reduce the number of infections. In this work, we try to answer these question and propose a new mathematical model with five compartments, including susceptible, vaccinated, infectious, asymptotic and recovered individuals. We provide theoretical results regarding the effective reproduction number, the stability of endemic equilibrium and disease free equilibrium. We provide numerical analysis of the model based on the Saudi case. Our developed model shows that the vaccine reduces the transmission rate and provides an explanation to the rise in the number of new infections immediately after the start of the vaccination campaign in Saudi Arabia.
2019年12月发现的一种新型冠状病毒——严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2），通常称为新冠病毒，重塑了世界。鉴于健康和经济问题至关重要，科学家们一直专注于了解该疾病的动态，以便为政府提供最佳政策和策略，使其能够缩短病毒传播时间。全世界已经等待疫苗一年多了。世界卫生组织（WHO）宣传称疫苗是对抗该病毒的一种安全有效的措施。沙特阿拉伯是世界上第四个开始为其民众接种疫苗的国家。即使有了新的简化新冠规则，第三剂疫苗仍然是强制性的。新冠疫苗在其有效性以及在减少感染数量方面的作用引发了许多问题。在这项工作中，我们试图回答这些问题，并提出一个具有五个 compartments 的新数学模型，包括易感者、接种者、感染者、无症状感染者和康复者。我们给出了关于有效繁殖数、地方病平衡点和无病平衡点稳定性的理论结果。我们基于沙特的案例对该模型进行了数值分析。我们开发的模型表明，疫苗降低了传播率，并解释了沙特阿拉伯疫苗接种运动开始后新感染人数立即上升的现象。
