Shim Eunha, Mizumoto Kenji, Choi Wongyeong, Chowell Gerardo
Department of Mathematics, Soongsil University, Seoul 06978, Korea.
Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303, USA.
J Clin Med. 2020 May 29;9(6):1641. doi: 10.3390/jcm9061641.
In Korea, a total of 10,840 confirmed cases of COVID-19 including 256 deaths have been recorded as of May 9, 2020. The time-delay adjusted case fatality risk (CFR) of COVID-19 in Korea is yet to be estimated.
We obtained the daily series of confirmed cases and deaths in Korea reported prior to May 9, 2020. Using statistical methods, we estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in Daegu, Gyeongsangbuk-do, other regions in Korea, as well as the entire country.
Our model-based crude CFR fitted the observed data well throughout the course of the epidemic except for the very early stage in Gyeongsangbuk-do; this was partially due to the reporting delay. Our estimates of the risk of death in Gyeongsangbuk-do reached 25.9% (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 19.6%-33.6%), 20.8% (95% CrI: 18.1%-24.0%) in Daegu, and 1.7% (95% CrI: 1.1%-2.5%) in other regions, whereas the national estimate was 10.2% (95% CrI: 9.0%-11.5%).
The latest estimates of CFR of COVID-19 in Korea are considerably high, even with the early implementation of public health interventions including widespread testing, social distancing, and delayed school openings. Geographic differences in the CFR are likely influenced by clusters tied to hospitals and nursing homes.
截至2020年5月9日，韩国共记录了10840例新冠肺炎确诊病例，其中256例死亡。韩国新冠肺炎的时间延迟调整病死率（CFR）尚未得到估计。
我们获取了2020年5月9日前韩国报告的每日确诊病例和死亡病例系列。使用统计方法，我们估计了大邱、庆尚北道、韩国其他地区以及整个国家新冠肺炎死亡的时间延迟调整风险。
除庆尚北道的最早期阶段外，我们基于模型的粗病死率在疫情全过程中与观察数据拟合良好；这部分归因于报告延迟。我们对庆尚北道死亡风险的估计达到25.9%（95%可信区间（CrI）：19.6%-33.6%），大邱为20.8%（95% CrI：18.1%-24.0%），其他地区为1.7%（95% CrI：1.1%-2.5%），而全国估计为10.2%（95% CrI：9.0%-11.5%）。
即使早期实施了包括广泛检测、社交距离和延迟开学在内的公共卫生干预措施，韩国新冠肺炎CFR的最新估计值仍然相当高。CFR的地理差异可能受与医院和养老院相关的聚集性病例影响。
