Is the Cyanobacterial Bloom Composition Shifting Due to Climate Forcing or Nutrient Changes? Example of a Shallow Eutrophic Reservoir.

Cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophic freshwater is a global threat to the functioning of ecosystems, human health and the economy. Parties responsible for the ecosystems and human health increasingly demand reliable predictions of cyanobacterial development to support necessary decisions. Long-term data series help with identifying environmental drivers of cyanobacterial developments in the context of climatic and anthropogenic pressure. Here, we analyzed 13 years of eutrophication and climatic data of a shallow temperate reservoir showing a high interannual variability of cyanobacterial development and composition, which is a less occurring and/or less described phenomenon compared to recurrant monospecific blooms. While between 2007-2012 dominated the cyanobacterial community, it shifted towards sp. and then sp. afterwards (2013-2019). The shift to sp. dominance was mainly influenced by generally calmer and warmer conditions. The later shift to sp. was driven by droughts influencing, amongst others, the N-load, as P remained unchanged over the time period. Both, climatic pressure and N-limitation contributed to the high variability of cyanobacterial blooms and may lead to a new equilibrium. The further reduction of P-load in parallel to the decreasing N-load is important to suppress cyanobacterial blooms and ameliorate ecosystem health.