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SARS-CoV-19 大流行对全球国内生产总值的影响。

The Impact of the SARS-CoV-19 Pandemic on the Global Gross Domestic Product.

机构信息

Faculty of Management, Warsaw University of Technology, 02-524 Warszawa, Poland.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 May 14;18(10):5246. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18105246.

Abstract

The rapid, unexpected, and large-scale expansion of the SARS-CoV-19 pandemic has led to a global health and economy crisis. However, although the crisis itself is a worldwide phenomenon, there have been considerable differences between respective countries in terms of SARS-CoV-19 morbidities and fatalities as well as the GDP impact. The object of this paper was to study the influence of the SARS-CoV-19 pandemic on global gross domestic product. We analyzed data relating to 176 countries in the 11-month period from February 2020 to December 2020. We employed SARS-CoV-19 morbidity and fatality rates reported by different countries as proxies for the development of the pandemic. The analysis employed in our study was based on moving median and quartiles, Kendall tau-b coefficients, and multi-segment piecewise-linear approximation with Theil-Sen trend lines. In the study, we empirically confirmed and measured the negative impact of the SARS-CoV-19 pandemic on the respective national economies. The relationship between the pandemic and the economy is not uniform and depends on the extent of the pandemic's development. The more intense the pandemic, the more adaptive the economies of specific countries become.

摘要

SARS-CoV-19 大流行的迅速、意外和大规模扩张导致了全球健康和经济危机。然而,尽管危机本身是一个全球性现象,但在 SARS-CoV-19 的发病率和死亡率以及 GDP 影响方面,各国之间存在相当大的差异。本文的目的是研究 SARS-CoV-19 大流行对全球国内生产总值的影响。我们分析了 2020 年 2 月至 2020 年 12 月期间 176 个国家的 11 个月数据。我们采用不同国家报告的 SARS-CoV-19 发病率和死亡率作为大流行发展的代理。我们研究中采用的分析基于移动中位数和四分位数、肯德尔 tau-b 系数以及带有 Theil-Sen 趋势线的多段分段线性逼近。在研究中,我们实证证实并衡量了 SARS-CoV-19 大流行对各国经济的负面影响。大流行与经济之间的关系并不统一,取决于大流行发展的程度。大流行越严重,特定国家的经济适应能力就越强。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9e96/8155974/9674255e7c3e/ijerph-18-05246-g001.jpg

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