Bradley Jake, Ruggieri Alessandro, Spencer Adam Hal
University of Nottingham, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Eur Econ Rev. 2021 Sep;138:103828. doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103828. Epub 2021 Jul 15.
This paper develops a choice-theoretic equilibrium model of the labor market in the presence of a pandemic. It includes heterogeneity in productivity, age and the ability to work from home. Worker and firm behavior changes in the presence of the virus, which itself has equilibrium consequences for the infection rate. The model is calibrated to the UK and counterfactual lockdown measures are evaluated. We find a different response in both the evolution of the virus and the labor market with different lockdown policies. A laissez-faire approach results in lives lost and acts as negative shock to the economy. A lockdown policy, absent any other intervention, will reduce the lives lost but increase the economic burden. Consistent with recent evidence, we find that the economic costs from lockdown are most felt by those earning the least. Finally, we introduce a job retention scheme as implemented by the UK Government and find that it spreads the economic hardship more equitably.
本文构建了一个存在疫情情况下劳动力市场的选择理论均衡模型。该模型涵盖了生产率、年龄以及在家工作能力的异质性。在病毒存在的情况下，工人和企业的行为会发生变化，而这本身又会对感染率产生均衡影响。该模型针对英国进行了校准，并对反事实封锁措施进行了评估。我们发现，不同的封锁政策会导致病毒演变和劳动力市场出现不同的反应。自由放任的方式会导致人员死亡，并对经济造成负面冲击。在没有任何其他干预的情况下，封锁政策将减少人员死亡，但会增加经济负担。与近期证据一致的是，我们发现，封锁带来的经济成本对收入最低的人群影响最大。最后，我们引入了英国政府实施的工作保留计划，发现它能更公平地分担经济困难。
