伊朗德黑兰环境黑碳与每日死亡率之间的关系：分布滞后非线性时间序列分析
Relationship between ambient black carbon and daily mortality in Tehran, Iran: a distributed lag nonlinear time series analysis.
作者信息
Rahmatinia Masoumeh, Hadei Mostafa, Hopke Philip K, Querol Xavier, Shahsavani Abbas, Namvar Zahra, Kermani Majid
机构信息
Student Research Committee, Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health and safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
出版信息
J Environ Health Sci Eng. 2021 Apr 30;19(1):907-916. doi: 10.1007/s40201-021-00659-0. eCollection 2021 Jun.
PURPOSE
The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of short-term exposure to ambient black carbon (BC) on daily cause-specific mortality, including mortality due to respiratory, cardiovascular, ischemic heart and cerebrovascular diseases in Tehran, Iran.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Daily non-accidental death counts, meteorological data and hourly concentrations of air pollutants from 2014 to 2017 were collected in Tehran. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess the association between exposure to BC and daily mortality.
RESULTS
The mean daily BC concentration during the study period was 3.96 ± 1.19 µg/m. The results indicated that BC was significantly associated with cardiovascular, ischemic heart disease, and cerebrovascular mortality, but not with respiratory mortality. In first model, each 10 µg/m increase in at lag 3, lag 4 and lag 5 were associated with cardiovascular mortality in 16-65 year age group with the relative risks (RRs) of 1.17 (95 % CI: 1.02-1.33), 1.17 (95 % CI: 1.04-1.31) and 1.12 (95 % CI: 1.02-1.24), respectively. The highest mortality rate per 10 µg/m increase in exposure was found for ischemic heart diseases with RR of 3.98 (95 % CI: 1.04-1.81, lag 01) for 16-65 age group. Cerebrovascular mortality was associated with 10 µg/m increases in non-cumulative exposure with RR of 1.17 (95 % 1.009-1.35, lag 5) in the age group ≥ 65 years. In the second model for a 10 µg/m increase in BC, cardiovascular mortality at specific lag days (5 and 6 days) in the age group ≤ 16 years were associated with RR of 1.34 (95 % CI 1.08-1.66) and 1.35(95 % CI 1.02-1.77), respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
This study in Tehran found significant effects of BC exposure on daily mortality for cardiovascular, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40201-021-00659-0.
目的
本研究旨在调查短期暴露于环境黑碳（BC）对伊朗德黑兰特定病因每日死亡率的影响，包括呼吸系统、心血管系统、缺血性心脏病和脑血管疾病导致的死亡率。
材料与方法
收集了德黑兰2014年至2017年的每日非意外死亡人数、气象数据和每小时空气污染物浓度。采用分布滞后非线性模型评估BC暴露与每日死亡率之间的关联。
结果
研究期间BC的日均浓度为3.96±1.19µg/m³。结果表明，BC与心血管疾病、缺血性心脏病和脑血管疾病死亡率显著相关，但与呼吸系统死亡率无关。在第一个模型中，对于16 - 65岁年龄组，滞后3天、滞后4天和滞后5天BC每增加10µg/m³，分别与心血管疾病死亡率相关，相对风险（RRs）为1.17（95%置信区间：1.02 - 1.33）、1.17（95%置信区间：1.04 - 1.31）和1.12（95%置信区间：1.02 - 1.24）。对于16 - 65岁年龄组，缺血性心脏病暴露每增加10µg/m³，死亡率最高，滞后01天的RR为3.98（95%置信区间：1.04 - 1.81）。在≥65岁年龄组中，脑血管疾病死亡率与非累积暴露增加10µg/m³相关，滞后5天的RR为1.17（95%置信区间1.009 - 1.35）。在第二个模型中，对于BC增加10µg/m³，16岁及以下年龄组在特定滞后天数（5天和6天）的心血管疾病死亡率相关的RR分别为1.34（95%置信区间1.08 - 1.66）和1.35（95%置信区间1.02 - 1.77）。
结论
在德黑兰进行的这项研究发现，暴露于BC对心血管疾病、缺血性心脏病和脑血管疾病的每日死亡率有显著影响。
补充信息
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s40201 - 021 - 00659 - 0获取的补充材料。
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