Institute for Interdisciplinary Health Research, European University at St. Petersburg, Shpalernaya Ulitsa, 1, St. Petersburg, Russia, 191187.
N.N. Petrov National Research Medical Center of Oncology, Pesochny, Leningradskaya Ulitsa, 68, St. Petersburg, Russia, 197758.
Sci Rep. 2021 Jun 21;11(1):12930. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-92206-y.
Properly conducted serological survey can help determine infection disease true spread. This study aims to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Saint Petersburg, Russia accounting for non-response bias. A sample of adults was recruited with random digit dialling, interviewed and invited for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The seroprevalence was corrected with the aid of the bivariate probit model that jointly estimated individual propensity to agree to participate in the survey and seropositivity. 66,250 individuals were contacted, 6,440 adults agreed to be interviewed and blood samples were obtained from 1,038 participants between May 27 and June 26, 2020. Naïve seroprevalence corrected for test characteristics was 9.0% (7.2-10.8) by CMIA and 10.5% (8.6-12.4) by ELISA. Correction for non-response decreased estimates to 7.4% (5.7-9.2) and 9.1% (7.2-10.9) for CMIA and ELISA, respectively. The most pronounced decrease in bias-corrected seroprevalence was attributed to the history of any illnesses in the past 3 months and COVID-19 testing. Seroconversion was negatively associated with smoking status, self-reported history of allergies and changes in hand-washing habits. These results suggest that even low estimates of seroprevalence can be an overestimation. Serosurvey design should attempt to identify characteristics that are associated both with participation and seropositivity.
规范开展血清学调查有助于确定传染病的真实传播情况。本研究旨在评估俄罗斯圣彼得堡 SARS-CoV-2 抗体的血清流行率,同时考虑到无应答偏倚。通过随机数字拨号招募成年人样本,进行访谈并邀请他们检测抗 SARS-CoV-2 抗体。使用二元概率比模型联合估计个体同意参与调查和血清阳性的倾向,对血清流行率进行校正。共联系了 66250 人,6440 名成年人同意接受访谈,2020 年 5 月 27 日至 6 月 26 日期间从 1038 名参与者中获得了血液样本。CMIA 校正测试特征后的血清流行率为 9.0%(7.2-10.8),ELISA 为 10.5%(8.6-12.4)。无应答校正后,CMIA 和 ELISA 的估计值分别降至 7.4%(5.7-9.2)和 9.1%(7.2-10.9)。偏倚校正后血清流行率下降幅度最大的归因于过去 3 个月内的任何疾病史和 COVID-19 检测史。血清转化与吸烟状况、自述过敏史和洗手习惯的改变呈负相关。这些结果表明,即使血清流行率的低估计值也可能存在高估。血清学调查设计应尝试确定与参与和血清阳性均相关的特征。
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