Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, VU University, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Harvard Medical School & Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, Massachusetts.
Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2021 Sep;30(9):1726-1734. doi: 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-21-0078. Epub 2021 Jun 23.
BACKGROUND: To explore the potential value of consensus molecular subtypes (CMS) in stage II colon cancer treatment selection, we carried out an early cost-effectiveness assessment of a CMS-based strategy for adjuvant chemotherapy. METHODS: We used a Markov cohort model to evaluate three selection strategies: (i) the Dutch guideline strategy (MSS+pT4), (ii) the mutation-based strategy (MSS plus a BRAF and/or KRAS mutation or MSS plus pT4), and (iii) the CMS-based strategy (CMS4 or pT4). Outcomes were number of colon cancer deaths per 1,000 patients, total discounted costs per patient (pp), and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) pp. The analyses were conducted from a Dutch societal perspective. The robustness of model predictions was assessed in sensitivity analyses. To evaluate the value of future research, we performed a value of information (VOI) analysis. RESULTS: The Dutch guideline strategy resulted in 8.10 QALYs pp and total costs of €23,660 pp. The CMS-based and mutation-based strategies were more effective and more costly, with 8.12 and 8.13 QALYs pp and €24,643 and €24,542 pp, respectively. Assuming a threshold of €50,000/QALY, the mutation-based strategy was considered as the optimal strategy in an incremental analysis. However, the VOI analysis showed substantial decision uncertainty driven by the molecular markers (expected value of partial perfect information: €18M). CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of current evidence, our analyses suggest that the mutation-based selection strategy would be the best use of resources. However, the extensive decision uncertainty for the molecular markers does not allow selection of an optimal strategy at present. IMPACT: Future research is needed to eliminate decision uncertainty driven by molecular markers.
背景:为了探索共识分子亚型(CMS)在 II 期结肠癌治疗选择中的潜在价值,我们对基于 CMS 的辅助化疗策略进行了早期成本效益评估。
方法:我们使用马尔可夫队列模型评估了三种选择策略:(i)荷兰指南策略(MSS+pT4),(ii)基于突变的策略(MSS 加 BRAF 和/或 KRAS 突变或 MSS 加 pT4),和(iii)基于 CMS 的策略(CMS4 或 pT4)。结果为每 1000 例患者中结肠癌死亡人数、每位患者的总折扣成本(pp)和质量调整生命年(QALY)pp。分析从荷兰社会角度进行。通过敏感性分析评估了模型预测的稳健性。为了评估未来研究的价值,我们进行了价值信息(VOI)分析。
结果:荷兰指南策略导致 8.10 QALY pp 和每位患者 23660 欧元的总成本。基于 CMS 和基于突变的策略更有效且成本更高,分别为 8.12 和 8.13 QALY pp 和 24643 欧元和 24542 欧元。假设 50000 欧元/QALY 的阈值,增量分析认为基于突变的策略是最佳策略。然而,VOI 分析表明,分子标记物驱动的决策不确定性很大(部分完全信息的预期价值:1.8 亿欧元)。
结论:根据目前的证据,我们的分析表明,基于突变的选择策略将是资源的最佳利用。然而,分子标志物的广泛决策不确定性目前不允许选择最佳策略。
影响:需要进一步的研究来消除分子标志物驱动的决策不确定性。
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