Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Department of Mathematics, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, USA.
J Biol Dyn. 2021 Dec;15(1):342-366. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2021.1946177.
We propose two models inspired by the COVID-19 pandemic: a coupled disease-human behaviour (or disease-game theoretic), and a coupled disease-human behaviour-economic model, both of which account for the impact of social-distancing on disease control and economic growth. The models exhibit rich dynamical behaviour including multistable equilibria, a backward bifurcation, and sustained bounded periodic oscillations. Analyses of the first model suggests that the disease can be eliminated if everybody practices full social-distancing, but the most likely outcome is some level of disease coupled with some level of social-distancing. The same outcome is observed with the second model when the economy is weaker than the social norms to follow health directives. However, if the economy is stronger, it can support some level of social-distancing that can lead to disease elimination.
我们提出了两个受 COVID-19 大流行启发的模型：一个是疾病-人类行为（或疾病博弈论）的耦合模型，另一个是疾病-人类行为-经济的耦合模型，这两个模型都考虑了社交隔离对疾病控制和经济增长的影响。模型表现出丰富的动态行为，包括多稳定平衡点、反向分岔和持续有界周期性振荡。对第一个模型的分析表明，如果每个人都实行全面的社交隔离，疾病是可以消除的，但最有可能的结果是某种程度的疾病加上某种程度的社交隔离。当经济弱于遵循卫生指令的社会规范时，第二个模型也观察到了同样的结果。然而，如果经济更强，它可以支持一定程度的社交隔离，从而导致疾病的消除。
