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用不同传播类型对新冠病毒病动态进行建模。

Modeling the dynamic of COVID-19 with different types of transmissions.

作者信息

Amouch Mohamed, Karim Noureddine

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University Chouaib Doukkali, Eljadida, Morocco.

出版信息

Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2021 Sep;150:111188. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111188. Epub 2021 Jun 19.

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a new epidemiological mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease with a special focus on the transmissibility of individuals with severe symptoms, mild symptoms, and asymptomatic symptoms. We compute the basic reproduction number and we study the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium in terms of the basic reproduction number. Numerical simulations were employed to illustrate our results. Furthermore, we study the present model in case we took into consideration the vaccination of a portion of susceptible individuals to predict the impact of the vaccination program.

摘要

在本文中,我们提出了一种新的用于COVID-19疾病传播的流行病学数学模型,特别关注有严重症状、轻微症状和无症状个体的传播性。我们计算了基本再生数,并根据基本再生数研究了无病平衡点的局部稳定性。采用数值模拟来说明我们的结果。此外,我们在考虑对一部分易感个体进行疫苗接种的情况下研究当前模型,以预测疫苗接种计划的影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ef08/8214201/f1a9a6f9adf3/gr1_lrg.jpg

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