Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Canynge Hall, Bristol BS8 2PN, UK.
Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg 2028, South Africa.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Jun 8;18(12):6191. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18126191.
Pneumonia is a leading cause of hospitalization in South Africa. Climate change could potentially affect its incidence via changes in meteorological conditions. We investigated the delayed effects of temperature and relative humidity on pneumonia hospital admissions at two large public hospitals in Limpopo province, South Africa. Using 4062 pneumonia hospital admission records from 2007 to 2015, a time-varying distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate temperature-lag and relative humidity-lag pneumonia relationships. Mean temperature, relative humidity and diurnal temperature range were all significantly associated with pneumonia admissions. Cumulatively across the 21-day period, higher mean daily temperature (30 °C relative to 21 °C) was most strongly associated with a decreased rate of hospital admissions (relative rate ratios (RR): 0.34, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.14-0.82), whereas results were suggestive of lower mean daily temperature (12 °C relative to 21 °C) being associated with an increased rate of admissions (RR: 1.27, 95%CI: 0.75-2.16). Higher relative humidity (>80%) was associated with fewer hospital admissions while low relative humidity (<30%) was associated with increased admissions. A proportion of pneumonia admissions were attributable to changes in meteorological variables, and our results indicate that even small shifts in their distributions (e.g., due to climate change) could lead to substantial changes in their burden. These findings can inform a better understanding of the health implications of climate change and the burden of hospital admissions for pneumonia now and in the future.
肺炎是南非住院的主要原因。气候变化可能会通过气象条件的变化影响其发病率。我们研究了温度和相对湿度对南非林波波省两家大型公立医院肺炎住院的滞后影响。使用 2007 年至 2015 年的 4062 例肺炎住院记录，采用时变分布滞后非线性模型估计温度滞后和相对湿度滞后与肺炎的关系。平均温度、相对湿度和日温差均与肺炎入院显著相关。在 21 天的时间里，较高的日平均温度（30°C 相对于 21°C）与住院率降低呈最强相关性（相对比率比 (RR)：0.34，95%置信区间 (CI)：0.14-0.82），而结果表明，日平均温度较低（12°C 相对于 21°C）与住院率升高呈相关性（RR：1.27，95%CI：0.75-2.16）。较高的相对湿度（>80%）与住院人数减少有关，而相对湿度较低（<30%）与住院人数增加有关。一部分肺炎入院可归因于气象变量的变化，我们的结果表明，即使这些分布发生微小变化（例如，由于气候变化），也可能导致其负担发生重大变化。这些发现可以帮助更好地了解气候变化对健康的影响以及肺炎住院的负担，无论是现在还是将来。
