Park Junbeom, Chang Seongju
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Deajeon 34141, Korea.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Jun 24;18(13):6801. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18136801.
Many countries are concerned about high particulate matter (PM) concentrations caused by rapid industrial development, which can harm both human health and the environment. To manage PM, the prediction of PM concentrations based on historical data is actively being conducted. Existing technologies for predicting PM mostly assess the model performance for the prediction of existing PM concentrations; however, PM must be forecast in advance, before it becomes highly concentrated and causes damage to the citizens living in the affected regions. Thus, it is necessary to conduct research on an index that can illustrate whether the PM concentration will increase or decrease. We developed a model that can predict whether the PM concentration might increase or decrease after a certain time, specifically for PM2.5 (fine PM) generated by anthropogenic volatile organic compounds. An algorithm that can select a model on an hourly basis, based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) and artificial neural network (ANN) models, was developed. The proposed algorithm exhibited a higher F1-score than the LSTM, ANN, or random forest models alone. The model developed in this study could be used to predict future regional PM concentration levels more effectively.
许多国家都关注快速工业化发展导致的高颗粒物(PM)浓度问题,这会对人类健康和环境造成危害。为了管理颗粒物,基于历史数据对颗粒物浓度进行预测的工作正在积极开展。现有的颗粒物预测技术大多评估预测现有颗粒物浓度的模型性能;然而,必须在颗粒物变得高度集中并对受影响地区的居民造成损害之前提前进行预测。因此,有必要开展一项关于能够说明颗粒物浓度是会增加还是减少的指标的研究。我们开发了一个模型,该模型可以预测在特定时间后颗粒物浓度是否可能增加或减少,特别是针对由人为挥发性有机化合物产生的PM2.5(细颗粒物)。开发了一种基于长短期记忆(LSTM)和人工神经网络(ANN)模型、能够按小时选择模型的算法。所提出的算法单独使用时,F1分数高于LSTM、ANN或随机森林模型。本研究中开发的模型可用于更有效地预测未来区域颗粒物浓度水平。