Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.
Collège Doctoral, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France.
Euro Surveill. 2021 Jul;26(26). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.26.2100533.
Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia (TTS) has been identified as a rare adverse event following COVID-19 vaccination with Vaxzevria. We modelled the benefits and risks of Vaxzevria distribution from May to September 2021 in metropolitan France where other vaccines are available, considering French hospitalisation data and European data on TTS. Across different scenarios, benefits of Vaxzevria distribution in people 55 years and older exceeded the risk of death from COVID-19. In young adults, risks were at least of similar magnitude as benefits.
血栓伴血小板减少症(TTS)已被确定为 Vaxzevria 接种 COVID-19 疫苗后的罕见不良事件。我们根据法国住院数据和欧洲 TTS 数据,在其他疫苗可用的法国大都市地区,对 2021 年 5 月至 9 月 Vaxzevria 分发的收益和风险进行了建模。在不同的情景下,55 岁及以上人群接种 Vaxzevria 的收益超过了 COVID-19 死亡的风险。在年轻人中,风险至少与收益相当。