Kersan-Škabić Ines
Faculty of Economics and Tourism "Dr. Mijo Mirković" Juraj Dobrila University of Pula Croatia.
Dev Policy Rev. 2022 Mar;40(2):e12560. doi: 10.1111/dpr.12560. Epub 2021 Sep 8.
The COVID-19 pandemic has substantially altered the context for cross-border business. This is reflected in trade flows but the conditions for conducting dispersed production functions across countries are also affected. This "new normal" period presents the need to examine the main problems and challenges in international trade and business.
The article aims to establish the scope, aspects, and implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on international trade and on international production by reviewing recent articles which deal with international trade and global value chain (GVC) issues, encompassing both changes that were already taking place and the challenges that began in 2020.
The findings of recent articles on trade flows and changes in GVCs (mainly the period 2019-2021) are described in theoretical terms, compared, and systematically reviewed. Special focus is given to the impact of the pandemic on GVCs, renationalization, and GVCs and the impact of the pandemic on GVC governance, and GVCs in the production of vaccines for the COVID-19 virus.
A drop in trade was recorded in 2020, alongside the introduction of protective trade policy measures. Reduced GVC activities had a negative impact on welfare and the "renationalization" of GVC-related activities is not a real solution. For the development of GVCs it is important to find a trade-off between efficiency and resilience, starting with reorganization (re-engineering) of GVCs, and probably focusing on regional frameworks. Liberal trade policies are essential to ensure the involvement of GVCs in producing the COVID-19 vaccines, since the various inputs are produced in different countries.
The possible directions for the future development of GVCs are elaborated: reshoring, resilience in supply chains, adjustments in governance, diversification, and development of risk-management strategies. The process of internationalization is not in question, but presents challenges which create the need for adjustments in its future development. Current problems with vaccine production arise in part from the erection of trade barriers and rising nationalism. There is a need for greater cross-country co-operation to avoid placing national short-term interests before long-term and broader objectives.
新冠疫情极大地改变了跨境商业的环境。这在贸易流动中有所体现,而且跨国开展分散生产职能的条件也受到了影响。这个“新常态”时期使得有必要审视国际贸易和商业中的主要问题与挑战。
本文旨在通过回顾近期涉及国际贸易和全球价值链(GVC)问题的文章,确定新冠疫情对国际贸易和国际生产的范围、方面及影响,这些文章涵盖了已经发生的变化以及2020年开始出现的挑战。
从理论角度描述、比较并系统回顾近期关于贸易流动和全球价值链变化(主要是2019 - 2021年期间)的文章研究结果。特别关注疫情对全球价值链、重新国有化以及全球价值链的影响,以及疫情对全球价值链治理和新冠病毒疫苗生产中的全球价值链的影响。
2020年贸易出现下降,同时出台了保护性贸易政策措施。全球价值链活动减少对福利产生了负面影响,而且全球价值链相关活动的“重新国有化”并非真正的解决办法。对于全球价值链的发展而言,从全球价值链的重组(重新设计)入手,并可能侧重于区域框架,在效率和韧性之间找到平衡至关重要。自由的贸易政策对于确保全球价值链参与新冠疫苗生产至关重要,因为各种投入品在不同国家生产。
阐述了全球价值链未来发展的可能方向:回迁、供应链韧性、治理调整、多样化以及风险管理战略的发展。国际化进程毋庸置疑,但带来了挑战,这就需要对其未来发展进行调整。当前疫苗生产问题部分源于贸易壁垒的设置和民族主义抬头。需要加强跨国合作,避免将国家短期利益置于长期和更广泛目标之前。