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气候变化对滑雪旅游影响的泛欧气象和积雪指标

Pan-European meteorological and snow indicators of climate change impact on ski tourism.

作者信息

Morin Samuel, Samacoïts Raphaëlle, François Hugues, Carmagnola Carlo M, Abegg Bruno, Demiroglu O Cenk, Pons Marc, Soubeyroux Jean-Michel, Lafaysse Matthieu, Franklin Sam, Griffiths Guy, Kite Debbie, Hoppler Anna Amacher, George Emmanuelle, Buontempo Carlo, Almond Samuel, Dubois Ghislain, Cauchy Adeline

机构信息

Univ.Grenoble Alpes, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, CNRM, CEN, 38000 Grenoble, France.

Météo-France, Direction de la Climatologie et des Services Climatiques, Toulouse, France.

出版信息

Clim Serv. 2021 Apr;22:100215. doi: 10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100215.

Abstract

Ski tourism plays a major socio-economic role in the snowy and mountainous areas of Europe such as the Alps, the Pyrenees, Nordic Europe, Eastern Europe, Anatolia, etc. Past and future climate change has an impact on the operating conditions of ski resorts, due to their reliance on natural snowfall and favorable conditions for snowmaking. However, there is currently a lack of assessment of past and future operating conditions of ski resorts at the pan-European scale in the context of climate change. The presented work aims at filling this gap, as part of the "European Tourism" Sectoral Information System (SIS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S). The Mountain Tourism Meteorological and Snow Indicators (MTMSI) were co-designed with representatives of the ski tourism industry, including consulting companies. They were derived from statistically adjusted EURO-CORDEX climate projections (multiple GCM/RCM pairs for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using the UERRA 5.5 km resolution surface reanalysis as a reference, used as input to the snow cover model Crocus, with and without accounting for snow management (grooming, snowmaking). Results are generated for 100 m elevation bands for NUTS-3 geographical areas spanning all areas relevant to ski tourism in Europe. This article introduces the underpinning elements for the generation of this product, and illustrates results at the pan-European scale as well as for smaller scale case studies. A dedicated visualization app allows for easy navigation into the multiple dimensions of this dataset, thereby fulfilling the needs of a broad range of users.

摘要

滑雪旅游业在欧洲的雪域和山区,如阿尔卑斯山、比利牛斯山脉、北欧、东欧、安纳托利亚等地,发挥着重要的社会经济作用。由于滑雪场依赖自然降雪和有利的造雪条件,过去和未来的气候变化会对其运营状况产生影响。然而,目前在气候变化背景下,缺乏对泛欧洲范围内滑雪场过去和未来运营状况的评估。作为哥白尼气候变化服务(C3S)“欧洲旅游”部门信息系统(SIS)的一部分,本研究旨在填补这一空白。山地旅游气象和雪情指标(MTMSI)是与包括咨询公司在内的滑雪旅游业代表共同设计的。它们源自经过统计调整的欧洲中期天气预报中心(EURO-CORDEX)气候预测(针对RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5的多个全球气候模型/区域气候模型组合),以5.5公里分辨率的UERRA地面再分析数据作为参考,并用作雪盖模型Crocus的输入,同时考虑和不考虑雪管理(平整、造雪)情况。针对欧洲所有与滑雪旅游相关区域的NUTS-3地理区域,以100米高程带生成结果。本文介绍了该产品生成的基础要素,并展示了泛欧洲尺度以及较小尺度案例研究的结果。一个专门的可视化应用程序允许轻松浏览该数据集的多个维度,从而满足广泛用户的需求。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2300/8246516/611cd7fb9956/gr1.jpg

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