Ayoub Houssein H, Amara Ibtihel, Awad Susanne F, Omori Ryosuke, Chemaitelly Hiam, Abu-Raddad Laith J
Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.
Infectious Diseases Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha, Qatar.
Open Forum Infect Dis. 2021 Apr 29;8(7):ofab218. doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofab218. eCollection 2021 Jul.
We analytically characterized the past, present, and future levels and trends of the national herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) epidemic in the United States.
A population-level mathematical model was constructed to describe HSV-2 transmission dynamics and was fitted to the data series of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.
Over 1950-2050, antibody prevalence (seroprevalence) increased rapidly from 1960, peaking at 19.9% in 1983 in those aged 15-49 years, before reversing course to decline to 13.2% by 2020 and 8.5% by 2050. Incidence rate peaked in 1971 at 11.9 per 1000 person-years, before declining by 59% by 2020 and 70% by 2050. Annual number of new infections peaked at 1 033 000 in 1978, before declining to 667 000 by 2020 and 600 000 by 2050. Women were disproportionately affected, averaging 75% higher seroprevalence, 95% higher incidence rate, and 71% higher annual number of infections. In 2020, 78% of infections were acquired by those 15-34 years of age.
The epidemic has undergone a major transition over a century, with the greatest impact in those 15-34 years of age. In addition to 47 million prevalent infections in 2020, high incidence will persist over the next 3 decades, adding >600 000 new infections every year.
我们分析了美国2型单纯疱疹病毒（HSV-2）全国性流行的过去、现在及未来水平和趋势。
构建了一个人群水平的数学模型来描述HSV-2传播动态，并将其与美国国家健康与营养检查调查的数据序列进行拟合。
在1950 - 2050年期间，抗体流行率（血清流行率）自1960年起迅速上升，1983年在15 - 49岁人群中达到峰值19.9%，随后转而下降，到2020年降至13.2%，到2050年降至8.5%。发病率在1971年达到峰值，为每1000人年11.9例，到2020年下降了59%，到2050年下降了70%。每年新感染病例数在1978年达到峰值103.3万例，到2020年降至66.7万例，到2050年降至60万例。女性受影响的比例过高，血清流行率平均高出75%，发病率高出95%，每年感染病例数高出71%。2020年，78%的感染发生在15 - 34岁人群中。
在一个多世纪里，该流行病经历了重大转变，对15 - 34岁人群影响最大。除了2020年有4700万例流行感染外，未来30年高发病率仍将持续，每年新增感染病例超过60万例。
