Centro de Biotecnología-FEMSA, Tecnologico de Monterrey, Monterrey, NL, México.
Departamento de Bioingeniería, Escuela de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Tecnologico de Monterrey, Monterrey, NL, México.
PLoS One. 2021 Jul 19;16(7):e0254430. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0254430. eCollection 2021.
We have investigated the importance of the rate of vaccination to contain COVID-19 in urban areas. We used an extremely simple epidemiological model that is amenable to implementation in an Excel spreadsheet and includes the demographics of social distancing, efficacy of massive testing and quarantine, and coverage and rate of vaccination as the main parameters to model the progression of COVID-19 pandemics in densely populated urban areas. Our model predicts that effective containment of pandemic progression in densely populated cities would be more effectively achieved by vaccination campaigns that consider the fast distribution and application of vaccines (i.e., 50% coverage in 6 months) while social distancing measures are still in place. Our results suggest that the rate of vaccination is more important than the overall vaccination coverage for containing COVID-19. In addition, our modeling indicates that widespread testing and quarantining of infected subjects would greatly benefit the success of vaccination campaigns. We envision this simple model as a friendly, readily accessible, and cost-effective tool for assisting health officials and local governments in the rational design/planning of vaccination strategies.
我们研究了在城市地区通过提高疫苗接种率来控制 COVID-19 的重要性。我们使用了一个非常简单的流行病学模型，该模型易于在 Excel 电子表格中实现，并且包含社会隔离、大规模检测和隔离的功效、覆盖范围和疫苗接种率等人口统计学参数，作为主要参数来模拟人口密集城市中 COVID-19 大流行的进展。我们的模型预测，通过接种疫苗运动可以更有效地控制人口密集城市中大流行的进展，这些疫苗运动考虑到疫苗的快速分发和应用（即，6 个月内覆盖 50%），同时仍在实施社会隔离措施。我们的结果表明，疫苗接种率对于控制 COVID-19 比总体疫苗接种覆盖率更为重要。此外，我们的建模表明，广泛检测和隔离受感染的个体将极大地有利于疫苗接种运动的成功。我们设想这个简单的模型是一种友好、易于获取且具有成本效益的工具，可以帮助卫生官员和地方政府合理设计/规划疫苗接种策略。
