Centro de Biotecnología-FEMSA, Tecnologico de Monterrey, 64849, Monterrey, NL, Mexico.
Departamento de Bioingeniería, Escuela de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Tecnologico de Monterrey, 64849, Monterrey, NL, Mexico.
Sci Rep. 2021 Feb 22;11(1):4327. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-83697-w.
COVID-19, the first pandemic of this decade and the second in less than 15 years, has harshly taught us that viral diseases do not recognize boundaries; however, they truly do discriminate between aggressive and mediocre containment responses. We present a simple epidemiological model that is amenable to implementation in Excel spreadsheets and sufficiently accurate to reproduce observed data on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemics in different regions [i.e., New York City (NYC), South Korea, Mexico City]. We show that the model can be adapted to closely follow the evolution of COVID-19 in any large city by simply adjusting parameters related to demographic conditions and aggressiveness of the response from a society/government to epidemics. Moreover, we show that this simple epidemiological simulator can be used to assess the efficacy of the response of a government/society to an outbreak. The simplicity and accuracy of this model will greatly contribute to democratizing the availability of knowledge in societies regarding the extent of an epidemic event and the efficacy of a governmental response.
COVID-19 是本世纪的第一次大流行，也是不到 15 年内的第二次，它残酷地提醒我们，病毒疾病没有国界之分；然而，它们确实在积极和中等程度的遏制反应之间存在差异。我们提出了一个简单的流行病学模型，该模型可在 Excel 电子表格中实现，并且足够准确，可以再现不同地区[即纽约市（NYC）、韩国、墨西哥城]COVID-19 大流行演变的观测数据。我们表明，通过简单地调整与人口状况和社会/政府对流行病反应的积极性相关的参数，该模型可以适应任何大城市中 COVID-19 的演变，进行密切跟踪。此外，我们还表明，这种简单的流行病学模拟器可用于评估政府/社会对疫情爆发的反应效果。该模型的简单性和准确性将极大地促进社会对疫情事件的范围和政府反应的效果的知识普及。
