State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Tsinghua Automotive Strategy Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Jul 6;18(14):7218. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18147218.
The large sales volume and a great number of passenger car ownership in China have brought a series of environmental and energy problems. In response to these problems, Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Dual-credit Regulation has been put forward in China. However, it is found that although the purpose of the Dual-credit Regulation is controlling the fuel consumption and promoting the development of the energy vehicle market, the fuel consumption restriction for fossil-fueled passenger cars is relaxed compared to CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) regulation alone. Moreover, this effect of relaxation is more obvious when the market share of new energy vehicles increases. To quantitatively estimate the relaxation effect of the fuel consumption restriction, a method of quantifying the relaxation effect is designed, and three different scenarios of new energy vehicle market development have been presumed in this paper. It is found that there are three main factors related to new energy vehicles that cause the relaxation of fuel consumption restriction, and the effect might become obvious and severe after 2025 if the market share of new energy vehicles develops very rapidly. These results may affect the development of the automotive industry and needed to be concerned.
中国庞大的汽车销售量和大量的汽车保有量带来了一系列环境和能源问题。针对这些问题，中国提出了企业平均燃料消耗量和新能源汽车双积分政策。然而，研究发现，尽管双积分政策的目的是控制油耗和促进新能源汽车市场的发展，但与单独的企业平均燃料消耗量（CAFC）法规相比，对燃油乘用车的油耗限制有所放宽。此外，当新能源汽车市场份额增加时，这种放宽效果更为明显。为了定量估计油耗限制的放宽效果，设计了一种量化放宽效果的方法，并在本文中假设了新能源汽车市场发展的三种不同情景。研究结果表明，有三个与新能源汽车相关的主要因素导致了油耗限制的放宽，如果新能源汽车市场份额发展非常迅速，这种放宽效果可能在 2025 年后变得明显和严重。这些结果可能会影响汽车行业的发展，需要引起关注。
