Ma Clara, Peñasco Cristina, Anadón Laura Díaz
Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Conservation Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Nat Commun. 2025 May 14;16(1):4467. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-59111-8.
Road transportation policies can drive innovation in more environmentally sustainable vehicle and fuel technologies but may have unintended consequences. To assess their impacts on technology innovation, greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, and land use, we systematically review and analyze evidence on the outcomes of 14 road transportation policy instruments, including fuel economy and low-carbon fuel standards, biofuel and zero-emission vehicle mandates, and fuel and vehicle taxes. We find that the effects of these policy instruments depend on their interactions, design, choice, and sequencing. We identify six types of relationships between policy instruments and highlight design features that have inadvertently increased vehicle emissions. We trace the evolution of electric vehicles through policy milestones shaped by experimentation and competition among influential jurisdictions based on their domestic priorities, industrial structure, and incumbent industry resistance. We show that policy instruments promoting first-generation biofuels have in some cases inhibited innovation in advanced biofuels.
道路运输政策可以推动更具环境可持续性的车辆和燃料技术创新，但可能会产生意想不到的后果。为了评估其对技术创新、温室气体排放、空气污染和土地利用的影响，我们系统地回顾和分析了14种道路运输政策工具的结果证据，包括燃油经济性和低碳燃料标准、生物燃料和零排放车辆指令，以及燃料和车辆税。我们发现，这些政策工具的效果取决于它们的相互作用、设计、选择和顺序。我们确定了政策工具之间的六种关系类型，并突出了那些无意中增加车辆排放的设计特征。我们通过由有影响力的司法管辖区基于其国内优先事项、产业结构和现有行业阻力进行的试验和竞争所塑造的政策里程碑，追溯了电动汽车的发展历程。我们表明，在某些情况下，推广第一代生物燃料的政策工具抑制了先进生物燃料的创新。
