Rahman Mahzabin Binte, Salam Roquia, Islam Abu Reza Md Towfiqul, Tasnuva Anjum, Haque Ubydul, Shahid Shamsuddin, Hu Zhenghua, Mallick Javed
Department of Disaster Management, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur, 5400 Bangladesh.
Institute of Disaster Management, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology, Khulna, 9208 Bangladesh.
Theor Appl Climatol. 2021;146(1-2):125-138. doi: 10.1007/s00704-021-03705-x. Epub 2021 Jul 23.
Climate change-derived extreme heat phenomena are one of the major concerns across the globe, including Bangladesh. The appraisal of historical spatiotemporal changes and possible future changes in heat index (HI) is essential for developing heat stress mitigation strategies. However, the climate-health nexus studies in Bangladesh are very limited. This study was intended to appraise the historical and projected changes in HI in Bangladesh. The HI was computed from daily dry bulb temperature and relative humidity. The modified Mann-Kendal (MMK) test and linear regression were used to detect trends in HI for the observed period (1985-2015). The future change in HI was projected for the mid-century (2041-2070) for three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 using the Canadian Earth System Model Second Generation (CanESM2). The results revealed a monotonic rise in the HI and extreme caution conditions, especially in the humid summer season for most parts of Bangladesh for the observed period (1985-2015). Future projections revealed a continuous rise in HI in the forthcoming period (2041-2070). A higher and remarkable increase in the HI was projected in the northern, northeastern, and south-central regions. Among the three scenarios, the RCP 8.5 showed a higher projection of HI both in hot and humid summer compared to the other scenarios. Therefore, Bangladesh should take region-specific adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of HI.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00704-021-03705-x.
气候变化引发的极端高温现象是包括孟加拉国在内的全球主要关注问题之一。评估热指数（HI）的历史时空变化以及未来可能的变化对于制定热应激缓解策略至关重要。然而，孟加拉国气候与健康关系的研究非常有限。本研究旨在评估孟加拉国热指数的历史变化和预测变化。热指数是根据每日干球温度和相对湿度计算得出的。使用修正的曼-肯德尔（MMK）检验和线性回归来检测观测期（1985 - 2015年）内热指数的趋势。利用加拿大第二代地球系统模型（CanESM2），针对三种代表性浓度路径（RCP）情景，即RCP 2.6、4.5和8.5，预测了本世纪中叶（2041 - 2070年）热指数的未来变化。结果显示，在观测期（1985 - 2015年）内，热指数和极端警戒状况呈单调上升趋势，特别是在孟加拉国大部分地区的潮湿夏季。未来预测表明，在未来时期（2041 - 2070年）热指数将持续上升。预计北部、东北部和中南部地区的热指数将有更高且显著的增加。在这三种情景中，与其他情景相比，RCP 8.5在炎热潮湿的夏季显示出更高的热指数预测值。因此，孟加拉国应采取针对特定区域的适应策略，以减轻热指数的影响。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s00704-021-03705-x获取的补充材料。
