Department of Natural Resources, Isfahan University of Technology, PO. Box: 841568311, Isfahan, Iran.
Int J Biometeorol. 2018 Jul;62(7):1275-1281. doi: 10.1007/s00484-018-1532-4. Epub 2018 Apr 5.
Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.
气候变化引起的极端高温事件在世界不同地区，特别是在发展中国家，成为一个主要问题。评估热浪的区域和时间过去和未来的变化是公共卫生战略和管理的关键任务。本研究调查了伊朗各地的历史和未来热指数（HI）时间序列，以研究全球变暖对公共卫生的影响。计算了热指数，并对历史时间序列（1981-2010 年）进行了非参数趋势评估。还预测了 2020-2049 年和 2070-2099 年期间的未来热指数变化。本研究中，历史（1981-2010 年）系列中，伊朗大部分地区夏季和春季的历史热指数上升和极端谨慎条件是显著的。使用不同的气候变化情景表明，未来该国的热指数将超过人类适应能力的临界阈值。未来气候变化对伊朗热指数风险的影响是重大的。为了应对这一关键情况，开发早期预警系统和医疗保健策略，以应对未来人口增长和显著的社会经济特征至关重要。
