Delaporte Isaure, Escobar Julia, Peña Werner
University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Fife, KY16 9AL Scotland UK.
Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC USA.
J Popul Econ. 2021;34(4):1385-1443. doi: 10.1007/s00148-021-00854-1. Epub 2021 Jul 28.
This paper estimates the potential distributional consequences of the first phase of the COVID-19 lockdowns on poverty and labour income inequality in 20 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. We estimate the share of individuals that are potentially able to remain active under the lockdown by taking into account individuals' teleworking capacity but also whether their occupation is affected by legal workplace closures or mobility restrictions. Furthermore, we compare the shares under the formal (de jure) lockdown policies assuming perfect compliance with the shares under de facto lockdowns where there is some degree of non-compliance. We then estimate individuals' potential labour income losses and examine changes in poverty and labour income inequality. We find an increase in poverty and labour income inequality in most of the LAC countries due to social distancing; however, the observed changes are lower under de facto lockdowns, revealing the potential role of non-compliance as a coping strategy during the lockdowns. Social distancing measures have led to an increase in inequality both between and within countries. Lastly, we show that most of the dispersion in the labour income loss across countries is explained by the sectoral/occupational employment structure of the economies.
本文估计了新冠疫情封锁第一阶段对20个拉丁美洲和加勒比地区（LAC）国家的贫困和劳动收入不平等可能产生的分布影响。我们通过考虑个人的远程工作能力，以及他们的职业是否受到法定工作场所关闭或行动限制的影响，来估计在封锁期间有可能保持活跃的个人比例。此外，我们将假设完全遵守的正式（法律上的）封锁政策下的比例与存在一定程度不遵守情况的实际封锁下的比例进行了比较。然后，我们估计了个人潜在的劳动收入损失，并研究了贫困和劳动收入不平等的变化。我们发现，由于社会 distancing；然而，在实际封锁下观察到的变化较小，这揭示了不遵守规定作为封锁期间应对策略的潜在作用。社会 distancing措施导致国家之间和国家内部的不平等都有所增加。最后，我们表明，各国劳动收入损失的大部分差异可以由经济的部门/职业就业结构来解释。
