Maurício de Carvalho João P S, Moreira-Pinto Beatriz
Faculty of Sciences, University of Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre s/n, Porto 4169-007, Portugal.
UCIBIO, REQUIMTE, Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Porto Rua de Jorge Viterdo Ferreira, 228, Porto 4050-313, Portugal.
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2021 Oct;151:111275. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111275. Epub 2021 Jul 24.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (CoViD-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Among many symptoms, cough, fever and tiredness are the most common. People over 60 years old and with associated comorbidities are most likely to develop a worsening health condition. This paper proposes a non-integer order model to describe the dynamics of CoViD-19 in a standard population. The model incorporates the reinfection rate in the individuals recovered from the disease. Numerical simulations are performed for different values of the order of the fractional derivative and of reinfection rate. The results are discussed from a biological point of view.
2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）是一种由严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）引起的传染病。在众多症状中，咳嗽、发烧和疲劳最为常见。60岁以上及有相关合并症的人最有可能出现健康状况恶化。本文提出了一个非整数阶模型来描述标准人群中COVID-19的动态变化。该模型纳入了康复个体的再感染率。针对分数阶导数的阶数和再感染率的不同值进行了数值模拟。从生物学角度对结果进行了讨论。
