Academic Department of Pediatrics, Bambino Gesù Children's Hospital, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico, Rome, Italy.
University of Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy.
Front Public Health. 2021 Jul 14;9:684760. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.684760. eCollection 2021.
SARS-CoV-2 is currently causing hundreds of deaths every day in European countries, mostly in not yet vaccinated elderly. Vaccine shortage poses relevant challenges to health authorities, called to act promptly with a scarcity of data. We modeled the mortality reduction of the elderly according to a schedule of mRNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine that prioritized first dose administration. For the case study of Italy, we show an increase in protected individuals up to 53.4% and a decrease in deaths up to 19.8% in the cohort of over 80's compared with the standard vaccine recalls after 3 or 4 weeks. This model supports the adoption of vaccination campaigns that prioritize the administration of the first doses in the elderly.
SARS-CoV-2 目前每天在欧洲国家导致数百人死亡，大多数是尚未接种疫苗的老年人。疫苗短缺给卫生当局带来了相关挑战，他们需要在数据匮乏的情况下迅速采取行动。我们根据优先安排第一剂 mRNA SARS-CoV-2 疫苗的时间表，对老年人的死亡率降低情况进行了建模。对于意大利的案例研究，我们发现与标准疫苗召回相比，80 岁以上人群的受保护个体增加了 53.4%，死亡人数减少了 19.8%。该模型支持采取疫苗接种运动，优先为老年人接种第一剂疫苗。
