Keller Lucas, Bieleke Maik, Koppe Kim-Marie, Gollwitzer Peter M
Department of Psychology, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany.
Department of Sport Science, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany.
PLoS One. 2021 Aug 2;16(8):e0255207. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0255207. eCollection 2021.
The tendency to be overly confident in one's future and skills has long been studied. More recently, a correlate of this overconfidence, the tendency to overclaim knowledge, has been in the focus of research. Its antecedents and downstream behavioral consequences are still in question. In a sample of undergraduate students (N = 168), we tested whether a set of characteristics of the person (e.g., age, gender) and personality traits (i.e., the Dark Triad) is related to overclaiming knowledge. Moreover, we investigated whether overclaiming, in turn, predicts risk preferences. To this end, we asked individuals to rate their confidence in solving a set of different math problems and their familiarity with a set of math concepts. Some of these concepts were nonexistent, thereby allowing participants to overclaim knowledge. Participants then stated their general risk preference and performed three tasks revealing their general, financial, and social risk preferences. We demonstrated the hypothesized relationship between overclaiming and confidence. Furthermore, we observed that the assessed characteristics of the person were not correlated with overclaiming. If anything, height and digit ratio, a phenomenological correlate of hormonal differences during development, tended to be associated with overclaiming. Surprisingly, overclaiming was not at all related to risk preferences or personality traits. This set of results shows the need for relevant theoretical and methodological refinements.
长期以来,人们一直在研究对自身未来和技能过度自信的倾向。最近,这种过度自信的一个相关因素,即过度宣称知识的倾向,已成为研究的焦点。其前因和下游行为后果仍存在疑问。在一个本科生样本(N = 168)中,我们测试了一系列个人特征(如年龄、性别)和人格特质(即黑暗三人格)是否与过度宣称知识有关。此外,我们还研究了过度宣称知识是否反过来预测风险偏好。为此,我们要求个体对解决一组不同数学问题的信心以及对一组数学概念的熟悉程度进行评分。其中一些概念并不存在,从而使参与者能够过度宣称知识。参与者随后陈述了他们的一般风险偏好,并完成了三项揭示其一般、财务和社会风险偏好的任务。我们证明了过度宣称知识与信心之间的假设关系。此外,我们观察到所评估的个人特征与过度宣称知识并无关联。如果说有什么关系的话,身高和指比(发育过程中激素差异的一种现象学相关因素)往往与过度宣称知识有关。令人惊讶的是,过度宣称知识与风险偏好或人格特质完全无关。这一系列结果表明需要进行相关的理论和方法改进。