College of Water Resources & Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, 17 Tsinghua East Rd., Haidian District, Beijing, 100083, China.
State Key Laboratory of Sediment Science and Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100083, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Jan;29(2):2353-2364. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-15748-8. Epub 2021 Aug 9.
China Tarim River Basin is located in an arid area, whose rapid socioeconomic development intensifies the current water resources shortage. To allocate water resources reasonably, this paper introduces the bankruptcy theory into the cooperative game model to contract a linear function describing the degree of satisfaction of each region's declared water demand. Bankruptcy theory solves the problem of insufficient information about stakeholders in the cooperative game. From the perspective of the cooperative game's stability, the bankruptcy allocation stability index (BASI) is used to evaluate and compare water resource allocation results in the Tarim River Basin in 2025 and 2030 under different scenarios. Moreover, this paper uses the improved TOPSIS model to build the harmony index of water-economy-environment (HWEE) to evaluate the harmony of water resources, economy, and environment in each region. The results show that the model is more suitable for the actual water allocation game and has a good application value than the classical bankruptcy theory. Moreover, the stability index and HWEE proposed in this paper also have better applicability, and the allocation scheme with the same game weight in each region is more stable.
中国塔里木河流域位于干旱地区，其快速的社会经济发展加剧了当前水资源短缺的问题。为了合理分配水资源，本文将破产理论引入合作博弈模型，构造了一个线性函数来描述各地区申报水资源需求的满意度程度。破产理论解决了合作博弈中利益相关者信息不足的问题。从合作博弈稳定性的角度出发，采用破产分配稳定性指标（BASI）来评价和比较不同情景下 2025 年和 2030 年塔里木河流域水资源分配的结果。此外，本文还采用改进的 TOPSIS 模型构建了水-经济-环境（HWEE）协调度，以评价各地区水资源、经济和环境的协调性。结果表明，该模型比经典破产理论更适用于实际的水资源分配博弈，具有很好的应用价值。此外，本文提出的稳定性指标和 HWEE 也具有更好的适用性，在各地区相同博弈权重的分配方案更加稳定。
