Komarulzaman Ahmad, Anna Zuzy, Yusuf Arief Anshory, Anbumozhi Venkatachalam
Center for Sustainable Development Goals Studies, Padjadjaran University, Jl. Dipati Ukur No. 46, Bandung, Indonesia.
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), Sentral Senayan ll, 6th Floor, JL. Asia Afrika, No. 8, Gelora Bung Karno, Senayan, Jakarta, Indonesia.
MethodsX. 2022 Jun 23;9:101772. doi: 10.1016/j.mex.2022.101772. eCollection 2022.
Economies often experience large shocks, necessitating the revision of development indicator forecasts, including Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) indicators. Many of those, predicted for 2030, require continued monitoring and re-estimation of how great the impact of these shocks will be, e.g., comparing the achievements with and without the shocks (counterfactual). In this paper, we design a protocol to create datasets containing 2030 SDGs indicator projection estimates that can be used to monitor the extent to which current economic shocks will affect the trajectories of those indicators. We combine official United Nations Statistics Division (UNSTAT) SDGs indicator data and economic growth projections data and fit them into the protocol. The protocol includes filtering UNSTAT SDGs indicators for regression analysis connecting them with economic growth. We assume that the difference in economic growth projections before and after a shock is primarily caused by the shock. This implies that our protocol is less suitable for an episode of more subtle shocks or shocks with multiple causes. We use these estimates to create the SDGs indicators projection dataset. We applied this to ASEAN-5 countries and the COVID-19 pandemic. The same protocol can be used for other countries as well as other economic shocks.•The protocol is useful to monitor how previous projection trajectories of SDGs indicators are affected by relevant large economic shocks, such as those due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The resulted dataset can also be used for comparing achievements, with and without shocks (counterfactual).•This protocol can be used by national and international agencies, especially those in charge of planning, monitoring, and evaluating the SDGs agenda. The protocol and the resulting data would also be helpful to researchers working on SDGs issues.•In this paper, the protocol to create the projection dataset of SDGs applies for the ASEAN-5 countries using the COVID-19 shocks. These can also be applied for other countries and other economic shocks.
经济体经常经历重大冲击，这就需要对包括可持续发展目标（SDGs）指标在内的发展指标预测进行修订。许多预计在2030年实现的指标，需要持续监测并重新估计这些冲击的影响程度，例如，比较有冲击和无冲击情况下（反事实情况）的成就。在本文中，我们设计了一个方案，以创建包含2030年可持续发展目标指标预测估计值的数据集，可用于监测当前经济冲击将在多大程度上影响这些指标的轨迹。我们将联合国统计司（UNSTAT）的官方可持续发展目标指标数据和经济增长预测数据结合起来，并将它们纳入该方案。该方案包括筛选联合国统计司的可持续发展目标指标，以便进行将其与经济增长联系起来的回归分析。我们假设冲击前后经济增长预测的差异主要是由冲击造成的。这意味着我们的方案不太适用于较为细微的冲击事件或具有多种原因的冲击。我们利用这些估计值创建可持续发展目标指标预测数据集。我们将此应用于东盟五国以及新冠疫情。同样的方案也可用于其他国家以及其他经济冲击。
•该方案有助于监测可持续发展目标指标先前的预测轨迹如何受到相关重大经济冲击的影响，例如由新冠疫情导致的冲击。所得数据集也可用于比较有冲击和无冲击情况下（反事实情况）的成就。
•该方案可供国家和国际机构使用，尤其是负责可持续发展目标议程规划、监测和评估的机构。该方案及所得数据对从事可持续发展目标问题研究的人员也会有帮助。
•在本文中，创建可持续发展目标预测数据集的方案适用于受新冠疫情冲击的东盟五国。这些也可应用于其他国家以及其他经济冲击。
