SIMMERK Medical Simulation Center, Division of Public Health and Department of Emergency, Disaster Medical Services, TR MoH Health Directorate of Istanbul, Istanbul, Turkey.
President's Office and Department of Pediatrics, Nutrigenetics and Epigenetics Association, Istanbul, Turkey.
Fam Pract. 2021 Aug 27;38(Suppl 1):i16-i22. doi: 10.1093/fampra/cmab058.
Pandemics threaten lives and economies. This article addresses the global threat of the anticipated overlap of COVID-19 with seasonal-influenza.
Scientific evidence based on simulation methodology is presented to reveal the impact of a dual outbreak, with scenarios intended for propagation analysis. This article aims at researchers, clinicians of family medicine, general practice and policy-makers worldwide. The implications for the clinical practice of primary health care are discussed. Current research is an effort to explore new directions in epidemiology and health services delivery.
Projections consisted of machine learning, dynamic modelling algorithms and whole simulations. Input data consisted of global indicators of infectious diseases. Four simulations were run for '20% versus 60% flu-vaccinated populations' and '10 versus 20 personal contacts'. Outputs consisted of numerical values and mathematical graphs. Outputs consisted of numbers for 'never infected', 'vaccinated', 'infected/recovered', 'symptomatic/asymptomatic' and 'deceased' individuals. Peaks, percentages, R0, durations are reported.
The best-case scenario was one with a higher flu-vaccination rate and fewer contacts. The reverse generated the worst outcomes, likely to disrupt the provision of vital community services. Both measures were proven effective; however, results demonstrated that 'increasing flu-vaccination rates' is a more powerful strategy than 'limiting social contacts'.
Results support two affordable preventive measures: (i) to globally increase influenza-vaccination rates, (ii) to limit the number of personal contacts during outbreaks. The authors endorse changing practices and research incentives towards multidisciplinary collaborations. The urgency of the situation is a call for international health policy to promote interdisciplinary modern technologies in public health engineering.
大流行病威胁生命和经济。本文探讨了 COVID-19 与季节性流感预计重叠对全球的威胁。
基于模拟方法的科学证据揭示了双重爆发的影响，提出了传播分析的场景。本文面向全球的研究人员、家庭医学临床医生、普通科医生和决策者。讨论了对初级卫生保健临床实践的影响。目前的研究是探索流行病学和卫生服务提供新方向的努力。
预测包括机器学习、动态建模算法和整体模拟。输入数据包括传染病的全球指标。针对“20%和 60%流感疫苗接种人群”以及“10 和 20 个个人接触者”进行了四次模拟。输出包括数值和数学图形。输出包括“从未感染”、“接种疫苗”、“感染/康复”、“有症状/无症状”和“死亡”个体的数字。报告了峰值、百分比、R0、持续时间。
最好的情况是流感疫苗接种率较高且接触者较少。相反的情况会产生最坏的结果，可能会扰乱重要社区服务的提供。这两种措施都被证明是有效的；然而，结果表明，“提高流感疫苗接种率”是比“限制社交接触”更有效的策略。
结果支持两种可行的预防措施：(i)在全球范围内提高流感疫苗接种率，(ii)在疫情爆发期间限制个人接触人数。作者支持改变实践和研究激励措施，以促进多学科合作。这种情况的紧迫性要求国际卫生政策促进公共卫生工程中的跨学科现代技术。
