Hong Sun Hee, Lee Yong Ho, Lee Gaeun, Lee Do-Hun, Adhikari Pradeep
School of Plant Science and Landscape Architecture, Hankyong National University, Anseong-si 17579, Gyeonggi-do, Korea.
Institute of Ecological Phytochemistry, Hankyong National University, Anseong-si 17579, Gyeonggi-do, Korea.
Plants (Basel). 2021 Aug 5;10(8):1604. doi: 10.3390/plants10081604.
Predicting the distribution of invasive weeds under climate change is important for the early identification of areas that are susceptible to invasion and for the adoption of the best preventive measures. Here, we predicted the habitat suitability of 16 invasive weeds in response to climate change and land cover changes in South Korea using a maximum entropy modeling approach. Based on the predictions of the model, climate change is likely to increase habitat suitability. Currently, the area of moderately suitable and highly suitable habitats is estimated to be 8877.46 km, and 990.29 km, respectively, and these areas are expected to increase up to 496.52% by 2050 and 1439.65% by 2070 under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 scenario across the country. Although habitat suitability was estimated to be highest in the southern regions (<36° latitude), the central and northern regions are also predicted to have substantial increases in suitable habitat areas. Our study revealed that climate change would exacerbate the threat of northward weed invasions by shifting the climatic barriers of invasive weeds from the southern region. Thus, it is essential to initiate control and management strategies in the southern region to prevent further invasions into new areas.
预测气候变化下入侵杂草的分布对于早期识别易受入侵的区域以及采取最佳预防措施至关重要。在此，我们使用最大熵建模方法预测了韩国16种入侵杂草对气候变化和土地覆盖变化的栖息地适宜性。基于该模型的预测，气候变化可能会增加栖息地适宜性。目前，中度适宜和高度适宜栖息地的面积估计分别为8877.46平方公里和990.29平方公里，在全国代表性浓度路径4.5情景下，到2050年这些面积预计将分别增加496.52%，到2070年将增加1439.65%。尽管栖息地适宜性估计在南部地区（纬度<36°）最高，但中部和北部地区预计适宜栖息地面积也将大幅增加。我们的研究表明，气候变化将通过将入侵杂草的气候屏障从南部地区转移，加剧杂草向北入侵的威胁。因此，必须在南部地区启动控制和管理策略，以防止进一步入侵新的区域。
