Department of Biosystems, Laboratory of Gene Technology, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
Microb Biotechnol. 2021 Nov;14(6):2244-2253. doi: 10.1111/1751-7915.13916. Epub 2021 Aug 31.
A study of the contemporary medical literature for patient symptoms from the so-called 'Russian flu' pandemic from 1889 revealed clinical observations that resemble COVID-19 (Brüssow and Brüssow, 2021, Microb Biotechnol). If one accepts the hypothesis that this pandemic was a prior coronavirus epidemic, the dynamics of the 'Russian flu' from 1889 might give us some ideas about the future trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. The present report compiles and reviews the contemporary data published on the temporal and geographical spread of the 'Russian flu', its epidemic wave structure and possible later resurgence. The historical record of past pandemics might thus provide us not with predictions, but 'retrodictions' on possible future scenarios for the COVID-19 pandemic.
一项针对 1889 年所谓的“俄罗斯流感”大流行中患者症状的当代医学文献研究显示出与 COVID-19 相似的临床观察结果（Brüssow 和 Brüssow，2021，Microb Biotechnol）。如果人们接受这个假设，即这次大流行是之前的冠状病毒流行，那么 1889 年“俄罗斯流感”的动态可能会为我们提供一些关于 COVID-19 大流行未来轨迹的想法。本报告汇编并回顾了关于“俄罗斯流感”的时间和地理传播、其流行波结构以及可能的后续复发的当代数据。过去大流行的历史记录可能不会为我们提供预测，而是为 COVID-19 大流行的可能未来情景提供“回溯预测”。
