Department of Sociology, Florida State University, 600 Bellamy Building, West College Avenue, Tallahassee, FL, 32306, USA.
Center for Demography and Health, Florida State University, 601 Bellamy Building, College Avenue, Tallahassee, FL, 32306, USA.
Demography. 2018 Feb;55(1):165-188. doi: 10.1007/s13524-017-0643-6.
The present study employs discrete-time hazard regression models to investigate the relationship between student loan debt and the probability of transitioning to either marital or nonmarital first childbirth using the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97). Accounting for nonrandom selection into student loans using propensity scores, our study reveals that the effect of student loan debt on the transition to motherhood differs among white, black, and Hispanic women. Hispanic women holding student loans experience significant declines in the probability of transitioning to both marital and nonmarital motherhood, whereas black women with student loans are significantly more likely to transition to any first childbirth. Indebted white women experience only a decrease in the probability of a marital first birth. The results from this study suggest that student loans will likely play a key role in shaping future demographic patterns and behaviors.
本研究采用离散时间风险回归模型，利用 1997 年全国青年纵向调查（NLSY97），考察了学生贷款债务与婚姻或非婚姻第一胎生育概率之间的关系。本研究通过倾向得分法考虑到学生贷款的非随机选择，结果表明，学生贷款债务对白人、黑人和西班牙裔女性的生育方式转变的影响存在差异。持有学生贷款的西班牙裔女性在婚姻和非婚姻母亲身份转变的概率显著下降，而有学生贷款的黑人女性则更有可能转变为任何第一胎生育。有债务的白人女性只有婚姻第一胎生育的概率下降。本研究结果表明，学生贷款可能在塑造未来人口模式和行为方面发挥关键作用。
