Contributions of the analysis of discarded cigarette packages in household waste in the Brazilian city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to estimate the illegal market.

The illicit trade of tobacco products, by enabling access to cheaper cigarettes, favors smoking initiation and hinders its cessation, minimizing the effects of price policy and taxes on reducing the demand for tobacco. This is especially the case among populations with lower income and schooling, where smoking is concentrated. Its confrontation requires multisectoral actions, aligned with the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, supported by estimates of the illicit trade magnitude and the analysis of its characteristics. This study analyzes, based on samples of household solid waste collected in 2018 in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the conformity of discarded cigarette packages with criteria for their regular commercialization in Brazil, classifying them as legal or illegal. The evaluation was also carried out for the 15 Planning Areas (PA) of the municipality. The Social Progress Index (SPI) was chosen to represent heterogeneities among PA. The average percentage of illegal cigarette packs found was 26.79%, ranging from 3.36% to 46.29% among PA. The PAs with high illegality presented lower Social Progress Index and lower percentages of legal cigarette packages with a price equal to or greater than BRL 7.25. Among the illegal packages, 98.07% were manufactured in Paraguay. The study contributes methodologically to measure the consumption of illegal cigarettes in the second economic capital of Brazil, supporting the National Tobacco Control Policy in the struggle against illicit trade of tobacco products and in the effective implementation of the pricing and tax policy on these products.