Research Department, Centro de Investigación para la Epidemia del Tabaquismo-CIET, Montevideo, Uruguay.
Health Policy Center, Institute for Health Research and Policy, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
Tob Control. 2019 May;28(Suppl 1):s53-s60. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2017-054218. Epub 2018 Oct 5.
In Uruguay, real tobacco taxes increased significantly during 2005-2010 and 2014-2017 and decreased during 2010-2014. The effects of these tax changes on illegal and legal cigarette usage differed significantly when we compared cities in the middle and south of the country with cities on the border.
This paper analyses whether supply side factors such as geographical location, distribution networks and the effectiveness of tobacco control play a significant role in sales and use of illegal cigarettes when tobacco taxes change, particularly given the price gap between legal and lower-priced illegal cigarettes.
Using the International Tobacco Control Evaluation Project Uruguay Survey data (2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014), choices among illegal, legal and roll-your-own cigarettes are estimated as a function of smokers' geographical location, an indicator of illegal cigarette supply, and controlling for socioeconomic and demographic variables. Smoking behaviours in Montevideo, Durazno and Maldonado were compared with those in two border cities, Salto and Rivera, where illegal cigarette prevalence may differ.
An increase in taxes on manufactured legal and roll-your-own cigarettes increased the odds that smokers in cities near the borders and women switched down to illegal cigarettes. City geographical location, controls effectiveness and distribution networks may play a significant role in accessibility of illegal cigarettes. To improve the effectiveness of increased taxes and prices in reducing smoking, policy-makers may consider specific policies intended to reduce access to illegal cigarettes, such as ratification and effective implementation of the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products of WHO.
在乌拉圭，2005-2010 年和 2014-2017 年期间，实际烟草税大幅增加，2010-2014 年期间则有所下降。当我们将该国中部和南部城市与边境城市进行比较时，这些税收变化对非法和合法香烟使用的影响有显著差异。
本文分析了在烟草税发生变化时，供应方因素（如地理位置、分销网络和烟草控制的有效性）是否对非法香烟的销售和使用产生重大影响，特别是考虑到合法香烟和低价非法香烟之间的价格差距。
利用国际烟草控制评估项目乌拉圭调查数据（2008 年、2010 年、2012 年和 2014 年），根据吸烟者的地理位置、非法香烟供应指标以及社会经济和人口统计学变量，对非法香烟、合法香烟和自卷烟的选择进行估计。比较蒙得维的亚、杜拉斯诺和马尔多纳多的吸烟行为与萨尔托和里维拉两个边境城市的吸烟行为，这些城市的非法香烟流行率可能有所不同。
对制造的合法香烟和自卷烟征收更高的税收，增加了边境附近城市和女性吸烟者转而购买非法香烟的可能性。城市地理位置、控制有效性和分销网络可能在非法香烟的可及性方面发挥重要作用。为了提高增加税收和价格在减少吸烟方面的效果，政策制定者可能会考虑采取特定政策来减少非法香烟的获取，例如批准和有效执行世界卫生组织《消除烟草制品非法贸易议定书》。
