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基于职业的预期寿命:确定法定退休年龄时的精算公平性。

Occupation-Based Life Expectancy: Actuarial Fairness in Determining Statutory Retirement Age.

作者信息

Deeg Dorly J H, De Tavernier Wouter, de Breij Sascha

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

Centre for Comparative Welfare Studies, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark.

出版信息

Front Sociol. 2021 Aug 23;6:675618. doi: 10.3389/fsoc.2021.675618. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

This study examines occupation-based differences in life expectancy and the extent to which health accounts for these differences. Twentyseven-year survival follow-up data were used from the Dutch population-based Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam ( = 2,531), initial ages 55-85 years. Occupation was based on longest-held job. Results show that the non-skilled general, technical and transport domains had an up to 3.5-year shorter life expectancy than the academic professions, accounting for the compositional characteristics age and gender. Statutory retirement age could be made to vary accordingly, by allowing a proportionally greater pension build-up in the shorter-lived domains. Health accounted for a substantial portion of the longevity difference, ranging from 20 to 66%, depending on the health indicator. Thus, health differences between occupational domains today can be used as a means to tailor retirement ages to individuals' risks of longevity. These data provide a proof of principle for the development of an actuarially fair method to determine statutory retirement ages.

摘要

本研究考察了基于职业的预期寿命差异以及健康在多大程度上解释了这些差异。使用了来自荷兰阿姆斯特丹基于人群的纵向老龄化研究(n = 2531)的27年生存随访数据,初始年龄为55 - 85岁。职业基于从事时间最长的工作。结果表明,非技能型的一般、技术和运输领域的预期寿命比学术职业短3.5年,这考虑了年龄和性别的构成特征。可以相应地调整法定退休年龄,通过允许在预期寿命较短的领域按比例积累更多养老金。健康占长寿差异的很大一部分,根据健康指标,范围从20%到66%。因此,如今职业领域之间的健康差异可作为一种手段,根据个人的长寿风险来调整退休年龄。这些数据为制定精算公平的法定退休年龄确定方法提供了原理证明。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/14b0/8419329/02e9ae936209/fsoc-06-675618-g001.jpg

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