School of Social Sciences, Castilla-La Mancha University (UCLM), 16071 Cuenca, Spain.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Aug 31;18(17):9199. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18179199.
Policy reforms of 2012 introduced in Spain a set of austerity measures to emerge from the 2008 global recession. However, attaining the sustainability of the long-term care (LTC) system by reducing public spending overlooks the drawbacks of a lower demand to meet dependency needs. In this context, this study is intended to provide a deeper insight into the economic factors affecting the shifts in the industrial output sustained by LTC spending before and after the austerity measures adopted in 2012. To accomplish this, we first apply a model based on the Input-Output methodology to quantify the output arisen from the consumption demand to meet the dependency needs covered by LTC spending in 2009, 2012 and 2015. Using the results of this model, we carry out a Structural Decomposition Analysis to explore the main drivers of change in the Spanish economic production for 2009-2012 and 2012-2015. The findings reveal that LTC demand factors have proven more relevant than technology factors in increasing production for the two periods considered. Such findings might guide political decision-making on the management of the LTC system in Spain, showing that public LTC spending does not merely contribute to the welfare of dependents, but also may boost economic production.
2012 年西班牙实行的政策改革引入了一套紧缩措施，以摆脱 2008 年全球经济衰退的影响。然而，通过减少公共支出来实现长期护理（LTC）系统的可持续性，忽视了降低需求以满足依赖需求的弊端。在这种情况下，本研究旨在更深入地了解影响 2012 年实行紧缩措施前后 LTC 支出所支撑的工业产出变化的经济因素。为此，我们首先应用基于投入产出方法的模型来量化 2009 年、2012 年和 2015 年满足 LTC 支出覆盖的依赖需求的消费需求所产生的产出。利用该模型的结果，我们进行结构分解分析，以探讨 2009-2012 年和 2012-2015 年西班牙经济生产变化的主要驱动因素。研究结果表明，在考虑的两个时期内，LTC 需求因素比技术因素更能促进生产的增加。这些发现可能为西班牙 LTC 系统管理的政治决策提供指导，表明公共 LTC 支出不仅有助于受抚养人的福利，还可能促进经济生产。
