Climate Change Biology Research Group, State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China.
College of Plant Protection, Shanxi Agricultural University, Shanxi, China.
Nat Commun. 2021 Sep 9;12(1):5351. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-25505-7.
Climate change has the potential to change the distribution of pests globally and their resistance to pesticides, thereby threatening global food security in the 21st century. However, predicting where these changes occur and how they will influence current pest control efforts is a challenge. Using experimentally parameterised and field-tested models, we show that climate change over the past 50 years increased the overwintering range of a global agricultural insect pest, the diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella), by ~2.4 million km worldwide. Our analysis of global data sets revealed that pesticide resistance levels are linked to the species' overwintering range: mean pesticide resistance was 158 times higher in overwintering sites compared to sites with only seasonal occurrence. By facilitating local persistence all year round, climate change can promote and expand pesticide resistance of this destructive species globally. These ecological and evolutionary changes would severely impede effectiveness of current pest control efforts and potentially cause large economic losses.
气候变化有可能改变全球害虫的分布及其对农药的抗性，从而威胁到 21 世纪的全球粮食安全。然而，预测这些变化发生的地点以及它们将如何影响当前的害虫防治工作是一项挑战。利用经过实验参数化和野外测试的模型，我们表明，过去 50 年来的气候变化使一种全球性农业昆虫害虫——小菜蛾（Plutella xylostella）的越冬范围在全球范围内增加了约 240 万平方千米。我们对全球数据集的分析表明，农药抗性水平与该物种的越冬范围有关：与季节性发生的地区相比，越冬地区的平均农药抗性高 158 倍。气候变化通过全年促进和扩大这种破坏性物种在当地的生存能力，从而促进和扩大了其对农药的抗性。这些生态和进化变化将严重阻碍当前害虫防治工作的有效性，并可能造成巨大的经济损失。
